Bond traders bet on CPI surge that keeps Fed hawkish

Fixed income markets are positioning for the strongest consumer price reading in years, with traders betting the data will force the Federal Reserve to stay restrictive longer than expected. The positioning reflects growing concern that inflation could reaccelerate just as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh settles into the role. Bond prices are already pricing a scenario where rates stay higher, with yields climbing on expectations of a hawkish pivot. The trade hinges on whether incoming data validates fears that the Fed is behind the curve on persistent inflation pressures. A hotter-than-expected print would likely trigger a sharp selloff in duration and cement expectations that rate cuts are off the table for the foreseeable future.