Indonesia awaits MSCI verdict that risks $13 billion outflows

MSCI put Indonesia "on probation" until May 2026 over free-float transparency concerns, triggering a 9 percent Jakarta Composite plunge and forcing the stock exchange CEO to resign. The index provider froze Indonesian additions and questioned ownership data from the central securities depository after investors flagged thinly traded, tightly held large-cap stocks. Goldman Sachs cut Indonesian equities to underweight, warning of over $13 billion in potential capital outflows if MSCI downgrades the market from emerging to frontier status. Regulators proposed doubling the minimum free-float requirement from 7.5 percent to 15 percent, affecting over 200 companies, as they scramble to meet global investability standards before the verdict.