Pakistan

Vice President Vance flies to Islamabad Tuesday for indirect negotiations with Iran, using Pakistan as the intermediary. Oil dropped 2% on the news, suggesting traders see this as genuine de-escalation rather than political theatre. The timing matters: Iran's uranium enrichment hit 60% purity last month, putting them weeks from weapons-grade material. Pakistan's role as broker signals this is about containing regional spillover, not just nuclear talks.

Brent crude plunged to $92 from record highs above $144, marking the largest single-day drop since 1991's Gulf War, after President Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz. The Pakistan-mediated deal suspends US strikes on Iranian infrastructure in exchange for coordinated safe passage through the vital shipping lane. Iran claims victory whilst agreeing to halt defensive operations, though missile launches continued post-announcement. The reprieve ends five weeks of supply disruption affecting 20% of global oil trade.

Islamabad will stage the first in-person US-Iran negotiations since February's war began, with Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner leading America's delegation. Iran rejected the US's 15-point plan demanding dismantling of three nuclear sites but proposed its own terms including permanent war end and $2 million per ship fees for Strait passage. Pakistan's successful mediation comes as 3,500 additional US Marines head to the region, creating negotiation under military pressure. The talks represent Trump's biggest foreign policy test since taking office.