Trade Policy

Indonesia is finalizing a centralized export framework for crude palm oil, coal, and ferroalloys through its Danantara sovereign wealth fund vehicle, potentially affecting $65 billion in annual commodity shipments. Trade Vice Minister Dyah Roro Esti told Bloomberg an update would come within weeks, following President Prabowo's claim that Indonesia lost $908 billion over 34 years to under-invoicing and export manipulation. The policy will route transactions through a state-managed digital platform starting January 2027, raising concerns among palm oil producers about contract continuity and pricing flexibility in niche markets. Indonesian commodity-linked equities have already declined on implementation uncertainty.

Brussels fast-tracked ratification of its new trade deal with the US after Trump threatened sharply higher tariffs beyond his 15% baseline. The agreement locks in a $750 billion energy purchase commitment and $600 billion in EU investment over Trump's term. European Parliament members who wanted to slow-walk approval over sovereignty concerns were overruled to avoid immediate tariff retaliation. The deal still contains legally non-binding elements that could unravel if political winds shift, but Trump's brinkmanship worked. EU exporters in autos, pharma, and semiconductors now face predictable 15% duties rather than open-ended escalation.

Trade Representative Jamieson Greer expects China to commit billions in US agricultural purchases, with Beijing already one-third through its soybean commitments for this growing season. Soybean prices jumped 12-15% on the news, but industry reports suggest traders expect diversified buying rather than the concentrated soybean surge of previous deals. The agricultural promises come with Beijing seeking relief from the blanket 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Watch whether this translates to actual purchase orders or becomes another Phase One-style commitment that underdelivers when political winds shift.

Trade Representative Greer confirmed both sides are willing to maintain the current truce while continuing a Section 301 investigation opened in October that could justify new tariffs. China has completed about one-third of its soybean purchase commitments, but Greer warned China typically retaliates against US actions by targeting farmers. The parallel tracks reveal the administration's strategy: keep dialogue alive while preserving legal grounds for pressure. The Supreme Court case challenging Trump's reciprocal tariffs makes Section 301 authority more critical if existing trade tools face judicial limits.

Trump brought top US executives to Beijing for his meeting with Xi Jinping but few major commercial agreements emerged despite the high-profile optics.

Trump's tariff strategy hit another judicial wall yesterday. A federal trade court ruled his 10 percent global tariffs illegal under Section 122 of the Trade Act, finding no balance-of-payments deficit exists. This follows February's Supreme Court rejection of his broader tariff powers under emergency legislation. The administration will appeal, but the pattern is clear: courts are systematically dismantling Trump's trade arsenal piece by piece. For businesses facing import costs, the legal uncertainty may prove more damaging than the tariffs themselves.

Donald Trump walked back his June 1 threat to impose 50 percent tariffs on EU goods, extending the deadline to July 9 after Ursula von der Leyen requested serious negotiations. The pattern is familiar: announce steep tariffs, spook markets, then delay after diplomatic outreach. EU goods currently face 10 percent duties, rising to 20 percent in early July without a deal. With 44 days remaining and a $236 billion trade deficit as leverage, Trump has created a binary outcome that could either produce genuine concessions or trigger the largest transatlantic trade war in decades.

New government portal goes live for businesses seeking tariff refunds under revised trade policies.

The Bank of Japan's default mode when facing uncertainty is simple: hold. A former BOJ executive director confirms what markets suspected — the central bank's "wait-and-see" approach makes December's rate decision too close to call, even with underlying inflation at 2% and the economy near full employment. The latest 7-2 vote to hold at 0.5% reflects concerns about U.S. trade policy impacts on Japan's manufacturing, while board members like Junko Koeda push for normalisation given low real rates. With fiscal 2026 wage negotiations starting pre-March, the BOJ's next move hinges on whether services inflation proves sustainable.