Investment Strategy

Unusual Machines jumped 82% to $9.77 after Donald Trump Jr joined the advisory board of the drone component maker, with volume spiking to 56 million shares versus a 121,000 daily average.

Japanese day traders have pushed Tokyo Stock Exchange volumes to ¥4-4.5 trillion daily, nearly doubling last year's ¥2-2.5 trillion as AI mania grips retail investors. The surge bypasses traditional exchanges entirely, with off-exchange trading systems capturing 10-20% of volume in hot AI names as brokers route orders through internal matching engines. This mirrors the U.S. Meme stock boom but with a structural twist: expanded NISA tax-advantaged accounts let millions funnel savings into volatile semiconductor and robotics stocks just as the Bank of Japan keeps rates near zero.

Indian debt fund managers are layering interest rate swaps over bond portfolios as swap rates hit multi-year highs above comparable government bond yields. Five-year swaps are trading around 6.58% while the benchmark 10-year G-Sec sits near 7%, creating arbitrage opportunities for funds receiving fixed in swaps while holding physical bonds. Trading Economics data shows the 10-year yield at 7.09% on May 22, its highest since mid-2024, as oil price shocks and fiscal pressures drive both bonds and derivatives higher.

Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund will cut foreign assets from 30% to 18% of its $925 billion portfolio as megaproject costs force a strategic retreat from global buying sprees. PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan signaled the pivot at October's Future Investment Initiative, while Neom's $1 trillion budget faces scaling back amid slower foreign investment inflows than originally projected. The kingdom is shifting focus to AI partnerships, including talks with Andreessen Horowitz on a $40 billion AI fund, as Vision 2030's delivery deadline forces hard choices between global prestige projects and domestic transformation. U.S. Equity holdings already dropped from $35 billion to $20.6 billion between end-2023 and June 2024.

Beijing's state-backed equity support apparatus is preparing to unwind nearly all its emergency market intervention positions as foreign outflows persist. The National Team pumped 410 billion yuan ($57 billion) into ETFs tracking Chinese indices during the latest market stress, but Bloomberg Intelligence analysis suggests 90% of those holdings will be sold in H1 2026. This tests whether China's $9 trillion stock market can stand without a state backstop. The withdrawal comes as foreign investors pulled 18.2 billion yuan in the latest month alone, marking six consecutive months of outflows.

Better earnings growth and cheaper valuations in Taiwan and Korea's AI winners are pulling foreign money away from India for potentially two consecutive years. BofA cut its Nifty 50 earnings forecast for FY27 to 8.5% growth from 11%, well below consensus expectations of 15%, while warning Indian equities remain expensive despite recent corrections. The firm expects zero point-to-point returns this year and continued underperformance versus emerging markets. Foreign institutional investors pulled funds for six straight months while domestic institutions struggle to fully absorb the selling pressure.

The large-format cinema technology company is reportedly in discussions about a potential transaction as demand for premium theatrical experiences remains stronger than standard formats. IMAX's globally recognized brand, technical moat, and licensing relationships with theaters make it attractive to buyers seeking stable, high-margin experiential media assets. Previous sale processes in 2006 generated interest but no deal, though the current environment may favor premium exhibition platforms. The timing reflects investor appetite for defensible entertainment assets that can command pricing power even as streaming reshapes the broader film business.

Nvidia raised its quarterly dividend to $0.01 per share, maintaining an annual yield around 0.02% that keeps the stock firmly in growth territory despite record earnings. The company returned $41.1 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2026, overwhelmingly through buybacks rather than dividends, with $58.5 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization. Even symbolic dividend increases are being read as signals that management sees fewer reinvestment opportunities at previous returns, explaining why shares pulled back despite beats across revenue, margins, and guidance.

Seth Fischer's Oasis Management is running activist campaigns across Kao, DIC Corp, Kokuyo, and Nissan as Japan's corporate governance reforms create clearer catalysts for value unlock. Fischer told Bloomberg he sees Japan as one of the most attractive markets globally for activism, citing TSE pressure on companies trading below book value and increasing board responsiveness to shareholder proposals. The Hong Kong-based fund filed a ¥7.2 billion lawsuit against Kusuri No Aoki over allegedly underpriced stock options, showing willingness to litigate when governance breaches occur. Oasis's Japan campaign roster has expanded as foreign investors re-rate Japanese equities and the weak yen attracts global capital.

A Hong Kong-based hedge fund is rotating out of AI stocks into oil tanker equities, arguing that artificial intelligence companies are overspending on capex while shipping offers better risk-adjusted returns. The move comes as China-focused hedge funds outperform global peers with the Greater China Equities Index up 15 percent in the first half, led by managers like Triata Capital's 45.1 percent gain. The shipping play reflects concerns that AI infrastructure buildout is getting ahead of monetization, while tanker stocks benefit from physical supply constraints and freight rate dynamics rather than speculative growth assumptions. The rotation signals broader hedge fund skepticism about crowded AI positions as managers seek uncorrelated returns in asset-heavy, cash-generative sectors.

Gina Rinehart is putting almost US$100 million into American weapons-makers, marking a sharp pivot from her traditional iron ore empire into the military-industrial complex. The investment comes just months after the Pentagon guaranteed floor pricing for rare earth metals that boosted her MP Materials and Lynas holdings by $300 million. Her timing looks prescient: global defense spending is accelerating while her existing rare earths portfolio positions her perfectly within US supply chain priorities. The move transforms Australia's richest woman from a mining magnate into a defense ecosystem player, complete with a $200 million veterans housing pledge that reads like political air cover.

Elliott has built a sizeable position in Bio-Rad Laboratories, betting it can unlock value from a company that's down 70% from pandemic highs and trading like a broken growth story. The activist's interest makes sense: Bio-Rad has strong technology assets and a meaningful stake in German lab equipment maker Sartorius, where Elliott already holds shares. Bio-Rad's shares are down 18% this year alone, giving Elliott plenty of room to argue for portfolio changes, cost cuts, or strategic alternatives.

New Zealand recorded its strongest population growth since 2024 in Q1 as the pace of citizen emigration finally moderated after years of brain drain to Australia. The shift comes as New Zealand's population is projected to hit 6 million before 2040, driven more by slowing outflows than accelerating inflows. For a small economy where marginal population changes materially affect labour supply and domestic demand, the slowdown in the Kiwi exodus could ease pressure on sectors facing acute skill shortages.

Anthropic agreed terms on a $30 billion round at a $900 billion valuation, led by Dragoneer, Greenoaks, Sequoia, and Altimeter. This tops OpenAI's $852 billion March valuation and represents a 2.4x jump from Anthropic's February $380 billion round in just three months. The speed signals frontier AI labs have entered a capital arms race where compute access matters more than traditional valuation metrics. With Google already committed for up to $40 billion and Amazon for $25 billion in strategic investments, this financial round positions Anthropic to IPO from a position of strength rather than necessity.

The SEC agreed to settle its civil fraud case against Gautam Adani over alleged concealment of a bribery scheme tied to a $750 million 2021 bond offering. Adani had argued the case lacked US jurisdiction since the conduct occurred in India and the bonds were fully repaid with all interest in 2024. The settlement removes one layer of US legal risk for Asia's richest man but leaves the parallel Brooklyn criminal case unresolved. The timing coincides with Adani's reported lobbying of the Trump administration and pledged US investments, raising questions about whether enforcement decisions reflect legal merit or geopolitical considerations.

India's PE market has split in two: record deal volume but collapsing values as sponsors balk at seller prices. Q1 2026 saw 415 PE deals worth $9.1 billion, down 34% in value despite near-record transaction count, as Grant Thornton data shows. Only two billion-dollar deals closed versus seven in Q4 2025. Average deal size crashed to $21.8 million from $36.3 million as firms chase mid-market targets over growth-stage unicorns. IPO exits fell 78% in value, removing the liquidity premium that justified lofty entry multiples.

Even top-tier sponsors are paying up in today's credit markets. Pacific Equity Partners, Australia's A$19 billion private equity giant, had to enhance pricing and protections on two portfolio company loans to clear syndication. The move signals a power shift toward lenders as Australian private debt yields push toward 5.75% all-in for leveraged transactions. PEP's Fund VII closed at A$3.2 billion hard cap last year and has deployed rapidly into large deals, but financing those buyouts now requires higher interest margins and tighter covenants than sponsors expected six months ago.

The DOJ's case against Citron Research founder Andrew Left isn't about short selling. It's about using 500,000 followers to manipulate stock prices through fake recommendations, then trading in the opposite direction. Prosecutors allege Left netted $16 million by claiming long positions while immediately selling, or promising 50% drops then exiting after 2-3% moves. During trial testimony, Cronos Group's CEO dismissed Left's 2018 short report as making "no sense," highlighting the quality of analysis that apparently fooled markets. The case tests whether social media influence constitutes market manipulation, with implications for every activist investor with a Twitter account. Left faces up to 25 years if convicted, but the real precedent is whether followers equal fiduciary duty in the age of viral stock calls.

ValueAct Capital's successful 2013 campaign against Microsoft offers a playbook for today's activists eyeing the software giant's recent decline. The firm secured a board seat by pressuring CEO Steve Ballmer's exit, generating billions in shareholder value when the stock jumped 7% on succession news. Now ValueAct is building stakes in Meta, Amazon, and Visa while Microsoft's P/E ratio lags peers, potentially signalling undervaluation or operational issues. The firm's recent moves show a preference for high-growth names over mature tech giants, but Microsoft's $3 trillion market cap remains activist catnip. With cloud growth slowing and AI competition intensifying, Microsoft could face governance pressure around capital allocation, buybacks, or strategic focus. The ghost of 2013 still haunts Redmond.

A former Asia quantitative research chief at Citadel Securities has more than tripled assets at his China-based hedge fund in recent months, capitalizing on strong performance as Beijing's regulatory crackdown on quants eases. The move reflects broader talent migration from Wall Street "pod shops" to domestic Chinese funds, as returnees tap diaspora networks and RMB financing channels. Citadel's own China expansion through QFII status and its $97 million settlement with regulators for 2015 trading irregularities shows the complexity of operating across jurisdictions. This trend matters because it signals capital formation shifting toward Chinese managers just as geopolitical tensions make Western fund access more uncertain.