Copper's tariff rally cracks as Washington keeps everyone waiting

COMEX October copper futures fell more than 4% on Wednesday, and Freeport-McMoRan shares dropped over 8% the same day, after the White House confirmed it still has no final decision on refined copper tariffs, as Bloomberg reported. The Commerce Department missed its June 30 deadline to recommend whether Section 232 tariffs should extend from semi-fabricated copper products, already taxed near 50%, to refined cathode. That vacuum initially pushed copper to record highs on the LME and COMEX through August, as traders front-ran a rule that hadn't been written yet and metal piled into US warehouses. Societe Generale puts the odds of a 15% refined copper tariff being live by January 2027 at just 14.6%. Copper is now heading for its first weekly loss since June, and the traders who built long positions on tariff certainty are the ones unwinding them.