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Recession
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UK unemployment rate in 2026: what the labour market showsThe UK unemployment rate is 4.9% for April to June 2026. Payrolled employment is also lower than a year ago. Here is how to read the labour market without relying on one noisy series.UK GDP per capita in 2026: is the economy growing per person?UK real GDP per head rose 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026 and was 1.0% higher than a year earlier. GDP per capita helps explain why headline economic growth can feel different from household living standards.Is the UK in a recession?No, the UK is not in a recession by the standard definition, but GDP is the wrong place to look. What the leading indicators say about a UK recession in 2026, why the official figure lags, and where the economy is actually heading.Is the UK heading for a recession in 2026?The UK is not currently in recession. GDP grew 0.4% in July and 0.4% in the three months to July 2026. The main downside risks are a softer labour market, weak industrial activity and an inflationary energy shock.What is stagflation?Stagflation is the combination of stagnant economic growth, high inflation, and rising unemployment occurring at the same time. It is unusual because the conditions that drive inflation typically suppress unemployment, and vice versa.What is fiscal policy?Fiscal policy is the use of government spending and taxation to influence economic activity. When the government increases spending or cuts taxes, it stimulates the economy. When it cuts spending or raises taxes, it tightens it. Fiscal policy is distinct from monetary policy, which operates through interest rates.