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CPIx
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CPIx vs GfK Consumer Confidence: two ways to read the UK consumerGfK measures what consumers say they feel. Briefed CPIx measures observed financial pressure across wages, credit, labour, retail, savings and energy. The measures can move differently without either being wrong.Is the UK in a recession?No, the UK is not in a recession by the standard definition, but GDP is the wrong place to look. What the leading indicators say about a UK recession in 2026, why the official figure lags, and where the economy is actually heading.UK consumer confidence in 2026: what the data showsGfK consumer confidence rose to -14 in August 2026, its highest reading for two years, from -17 in July and -25 in April. Sentiment is improving, but remains below zero.UK consumer spending in 2026: what the data showsRetail sales volumes rose 1.1% in the three months to July 2026 and 3.0% from a year earlier, despite a 0.5% monthly fall in July. The consumer is recovering unevenly, not collapsing or booming.What caused the cost of living crisis in the UK?Three overlapping shocks: energy prices, post-pandemic supply chains, and a wage-price spiral in services. How each one hit, and when costs ease.What is CPIx? The Briefed consumer stress index, explainedCPIx is the Briefed real-time consumer stress index for the UK and US. It measures what households are doing with money, not how they say they feel. Here is what it tracks, how it differs from ONS and GfK data, and how to read it.What the consumer confidence surveys are not measuringGfK and similar surveys tell you how consumers feel about their finances. They do not tell you how financially stretched they are. The gap between the two is where the real signal lives, and right now that gap is widening.