Notes · Topic
CPIx
10 editorial notes from Briefed on CPIx. Thinking from the editorial team, written for UK founders, operators, and investors.
June 2026
CPIx vs GfK Consumer Confidence: two ways to read the UK consumer
CPIx and GfK measure different things and frequently disagree. Understanding when and why they diverge is more useful than relying on either alone. Here is how to read both.
May 2026
What is the average UK salary, wage and pay?
Median full-time pay in the UK is just over £38,000 a year, according to the ONS. What the average salary and wage actually buy in 2026, how pay differs across England and Britain, and why real earnings lag the headline figure.
May 2026
Is the UK in a recession?
No, the UK is not in a recession by the standard definition, but GDP is the wrong place to look. What the leading indicators say about a UK recession in 2026, why the official figure lags, and where the economy is actually heading.
May 2026
Is the UK heading for a recession in 2026?
GDP is positive but several leading indicators are pointing in the wrong direction. Here is what the forward-looking data says about recession risk in 2026.
May 2026
UK consumer sentiment in 2026: what the data is actually showing
GfK stands at -23. The Deloitte tracker hit its lowest since 2022. But the surveys miss the credit story, and that is where the real pressure is.
May 2026
UK consumer spending in 2026: what the data shows
Retail sales have held up better than confidence data predicts. The reason is credit, not income, and that distinction matters for consumer-facing businesses.
May 2026
What caused the cost of living crisis in the UK?
The UK cost of living crisis had three overlapping causes: an energy price shock, post-pandemic supply chain disruption, and a wage-price dynamic that kept services inflation elevated long after goods prices stabilised. Here is how each contributed, and what the outlook is for costs coming down.
May 2026
Is the UK economy growing?
Technically yes. UK GDP has been positive through 2025 and into 2026. But growth has been thin, real living standards have not recovered to their pre-2021 levels, and the gap between the headline number and the household experience remains wide.
May 2026
What is CPIx? The Briefed consumer stress index, explained
CPIx is the Briefed real-time consumer stress index for the UK and US. It measures what households are doing with money, not how they say they feel. Here is what it tracks, how it differs from ONS and GfK data, and how to read it.
May 2026
What the consumer confidence surveys are not measuring
GfK and similar surveys tell you how consumers feel about their finances. They do not tell you how financially stretched they are. The gap between the two is where the real signal lives, and right now that gap is widening.