Ceasefire Negotiations

Donald Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until Tuesday 8pm ET, threatening strikes on power plants and bridges if Tehran refuses. Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators are pushing a 45-day ceasefire deal, but Iranian officials have rejected multiple US proposals and sources say chances of agreement within 48 hours are "slim". The stakes are enormous: a comprehensive US-Israeli bombing campaign targeting Iran's energy infrastructure is ready to execute if diplomacy fails.

Asian stocks jumped over 1% and emerging market currencies strengthened on reports of US-Iran ceasefire discussions, with 15 ships reportedly passing through the Strait of Hormuz with Iranian permission. Thai shares led gains at 2.3% while crude oil pared earlier advances. Markets remain volatile: the MSCI Emerging Markets Index had wiped out all 2026 gains in March's sharpest monthly decline since 2020. US gasoline prices hitting $4.11 per gallon could push March CPI up 1%, the most since the post-pandemic surge.