Crude Oil

The market spent months pricing a sustained supply crisis. The mechanism that would have caused it is now unwinding faster than the consensus assumed. A preliminary US-Iran deal includes an immediate 60-day ceasefire and the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal Geneva signing scheduled for 19 June, and the backlog of deferred Gulf barrels is already queuing for transit. Crucially, the 'at risk' volume figure was revised down repeatedly through the crisis, from 20 million barrels per day to approximately 10 million bpd, meaning the effective disruption was always smaller than the headline rhetoric. When stored and deferred cargoes hit a market where demand growth has been slower than pre-crisis forecasts, the result is a temporary surplus, not a soft landing. For investors long energy equities on a scarcity thesis, the $150-$200 oil call that was circulating two months ago is now a liability. OPEC has a familiar choice: absorb the price hit or coordinate cuts fast enough to limit the drawdown.

The province will submit a general corridor concept to Ottawa's Major Projects Office by July 1 rather than a fixed route for its proposed northern BC pipeline. Indigenous Relations Minister Rajan Sawhney said Alberta is considering a path to northwest BC near Prince Rupert, with specific routing determined later through Indigenous consultations. The 1 million barrel-per-day project would help access Asian markets but faces the federal oil tanker moratorium affecting northern BC terminals. The corridor approach appears designed to maintain flexibility while building Indigenous support, though it leaves key commercial variables unresolved for potential investors.

Albert Manifold's eight-month tenure as BP chair ended after clashing with company secretary Ben Mathews over private jets, limousines and board travel costs. The former CRH CEO pushed for tighter expense controls while facing board concerns about aggressive behaviour toward staff, which he denies. Reports suggest Mathews has taken time off following the upheaval as BP grapples with what media describe as a 'culture of excess'. Manifold frames his removal as resistance to cost-cutting reforms, while the board cited serious governance concerns beyond policy disagreements.

Beach Energy CEO Brett Woods is positioning the company as both buyer and takeover target after Australia's domestic gas reservation push increased strategic value for gas-focused producers. Woods cut 30% of headcount in March and plans to slash production guidance by about 20% at a June 18 strategy day, resetting expectations before pursuing growth through M&A. Beach's gas-weighted portfolio across Cooper, Perth, and Otway basins aligns with policy preferences for reliable domestic supply over LNG exports. Seven Group Holdings' 30%+ stake and activist reputation makes Beach a logical consolidation platform for Australian gas assets.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe met senior Cuban intelligence officials in Havana Thursday, with CBS reporting he delivered a message that the US was prepared to expand engagement if Havana made fundamental changes. The rare visit coincides with Cuba's energy minister warning of blackouts lasting 20-22 hours daily after the national grid failed. The State Department renewed an offer of $100 million in direct humanitarian aid, but only through the Catholic Church and independent groups bypassing the Cuban state. The conditional opening suggests Washington sees opportunity in Cuba's crisis but won't abandon leverage for symbolic gestures.

Brent crude trades between $93-$103.50 per barrel in what Pepperstone's Dilin Wu calls a consolidation pointing to the upside. Korean and Japanese equities plunged over 10% from February highs as energy costs cascade through Asian supply chains. Oil's path higher reflects structural damage rather than headline risk, with Hormuz disruptions potentially cutting global supply by 20%. Asian markets bear 75% of that exposure compared to minimal US risk at 4%. Wu remains cautiously optimistic despite persistent geopolitical uncertainties around Trump-Iran negotiations.

US soybean oil futures plunged 5% as Iran ceasefire hopes crushed crude prices and reduced biodiesel demand expectations. The agricultural commodity had rallied to multi-year highs tracking oil's surge above $115, but fell sharply as Brent dropped to $107. OPEC+ agreed to a modest 206,000 barrel daily increase for May, whilst Saudi Arabia set record $19.50 premiums for Asian buyers. The volatile relationship between energy and agricultural markets highlights biofuel feedstock exposure to geopolitical shocks.

Saudi Aramco raised its flagship Arab Light crude price for Asian buyers to a record $19.50 per barrel premium above regional benchmarks, responding to Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The hike was lower than the $40 premium traders expected, but Brent has still surged over 50% year-to-date with 180 million barrels disrupted so far according to Aramco's CEO. OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels daily starting May, but repairs to damaged infrastructure will be costly and time-intensive.

Brent crude surged over 1% to above $111 per barrel as Trump's escalation threats offset reports of intense negotiations with Iran through multiple channels. US gasoline prices hit $4.11 per gallon, up 13 cents from last week and the highest since 2022. Eight OPEC+ nations agreed to boost May production by an undisclosed amount, but availability remains uncertain if the Strait remains blocked. Trump's zigzagging between war threats and peace talks is creating whiplash in energy markets, with one trader noting prices could easily spike above $120 if Tuesday's deadline passes without resolution.