US Consumer Pressure Index
How stretched the US consumer is, in one number.
CPIx US is a 0 to 100 composite built in two equal layers: a macro anchor drawing on six categories of published economic data, and a real-time behavioural layer of high-frequency signals that respond to household stress before official statistics do. Updated daily, with weekly history back to 2002.
CPIx US
through 13 Jul 2026
69.5
-0.2 (-0.3%) vs last month
Consumer stress is materially above trend across multiple categories.
The reading, in words
As of 2026-07-13, CPIx US stands at 69.5 out of 100 (Elevated stress), down 0.2 points on the previous week.
Citing CPIx. Journalists and researchers may quote this figure freely with attribution to Briefed CPIx. Suggested form: “Briefed’s CPIx US consumer-stress index, [score] as of [date] (briefedmedia.com/cpix/us).” Commercial licensing or API access: sales@briefedmedia.com.
The long view
Consumer pressure since 2002.
CPIx US reconstructed back through the 2008 financial crisis, the 2011 squeeze, the COVID shock, and the 2022 cost-of-living peak. The dashed lines mark the Rising and Elevated thresholds; the open circle marks the all-time high.
Reading the score
Why is it
where it is?
What is holding it down
Jobless claims, while rising, have not yet reached the 300,000+ level that historically signals a recession. At 226,000 in mid-June, the labour market is softening but not broken. That partial resilience keeps the score from pushing further into Elevated Stress territory.
Nominal retail sales remain positive, suggesting households are still spending. The composition has shifted, with more going to essentials and less to discretionary, but the aggregate has not collapsed.
What is pushing it up
Gas prices are roughly 40% higher than a year ago, running near $4.50 per gallon in May versus around $3.15 in June 2025. This is the most direct and visible household cost signal in the index, and it is driving a significant share of the elevated reading.
Consumer sentiment collapsed to 49.8 in April (University of Michigan), a level comparable to the depths of the 2022 inflation shock and well below the 70-80 range that characterised the pre-pandemic expansion. Households are not just feeling stretched, they are uncertain about what comes next.
The personal savings rate has fallen from 4.5% in January to 2.6% in April. Households are drawing down savings to maintain consumption. That is a classic late-cycle stress signal: spending is still holding up only because reserves are being depleted.
Credit card delinquency is at 2.92%, above pre-pandemic norms, and trending higher. Jobless claims have risen from 189,000 in late April to 226,000 by mid-June, a move of nearly 20% in six weeks.
The 30-year mortgage rate sits at 6.47%. Most existing homeowners are locked into sub-3% rates from 2020-21, suppressing mobility. New buyers face a brutal affordability wall. Housing is effectively frozen.
The honest read
The 71.1 reading is driven by a cluster of reinforcing pressures: a tariff-driven gas price shock, collapsed consumer confidence, a savings rate near multi-year lows, and a labour market that is visibly softening. The macro anchor, wages and employment, has not yet broken outright, which is why the score is Elevated Stress rather than at the 2008 peak. But the direction of every behavioural signal is the same. The index is recording what households are living, not what the headline figures would suggest.
About CPIx US
Frequently asked.
What does CPIx US measure?
CPIx US is a composite index tracking consumer financial stress across the US economy. It is built in two equal layers: a macro anchor of six published economic series (wages versus inflation, consumer credit, labour market conditions, retail demand, household savings, and energy costs) and a real-time behavioural layer of high-frequency signals drawn from weekly jobless claims, financial conditions, gas prices, consumer spending, and mortgage rates. Each series is normalised and weighted into a single score from 0 to 100, then classified Stable, Rising pressure, or Elevated stress. The bands are calibrated to the US index distribution: Rising pressure begins at 53 and Elevated stress at 58.
Is CPIx the same as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI)?
No. CPIx is a proprietary index from Briefed, distinct from the BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI measures price inflation across a basket of goods; CPIx measures consumer financial stress, how stretched US households are, drawing on both published economic data and real-time behavioural signals.
Why does CPIx sometimes diverge from official statistics?
By design. The macro anchor reflects what BLS and the Federal Reserve are publishing. The behavioural layer reflects what households are actually experiencing: weekly jobless claims trending up, gas prices near record highs, savings rates collapsing. The two can point in different directions at the same time, and the score averages them. That tension is informative, not a flaw.
How often does CPIx US update?
CPIx is recomputed daily from weekly source data; the current reading reflects the latest available data, with its as-of date noted on the index. Weekly history runs back to 2002.
Is there a UK version?
Yes. CPIx UK uses the same methodology applied to UK sources, with bands calibrated to its own distribution (Rising pressure at 56, Elevated stress at 62). It is available at briefedmedia.com/cpix/uk.
How can I use CPIx data?
Journalistic use with attribution to Briefed is welcome, no licence required. Commercial licensing, sector breakdowns, trend history, and API access are available through Briefed Research and Intelligence. Contact sales@briefedmedia.com.
Also available
CPIx United Kingdom