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Geopolitics
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Oil holds near recent range as traders watch OPEC+ supply signalsBrent is drifting sideways again this morning with no fresh catalyst, leaving traders parked between soft demand data and OPEC+ discipline. Nobody's forcing a breakout either way today.Markets barely blink at Middle East riskVolatility gauges have dropped sharply even as regional tensions persist, suggesting traders have priced geopolitical risk out faster than the risk itself has faded.Shandong's tanks are running dry and Iran is the cheapest refillIndependent Chinese refiners in Shandong saw inventories fall to 360 million barrels in July, the lowest in eight months, according to Energy Aspects data cited by Bloomberg. These teapots already …Netanyahu kills the disarmament plan Hamas had already acceptedIsrael's prime minister said flatly that his government does not accept the 15-point document, rejecting a US-backed plan that would pair Hamas disarmament with a phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaz…Iran says it has a Hormuz deal with Oman. Shipowners aren't celebrating yetIran says it has struck an agreement with Oman over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the channel that carries roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil. Tehran is also reportedly pushing to…Oil majors are having a very good warDiamondback Energy just raised production guidance and reported surging profit, and the mechanism is simple: Middle East conflict has pulled non-OPEC supply into the gap, with Brazil's oil output h…Anduril eyes a Baltimore shipyard to build drone boats at scaleAnduril moving into physical shipyard capacity, rather than just software and munitions, is the clearest sign yet that the defence tech firm sees autonomous naval systems as a manufacturing problem…Marriott's Middle East exposure just showed up in the numbersMarriott flagging that the Middle East conflict weighed on sales confirms what airlines have been saying for months quietly: regional conflict is now a line item in hospitality earnings, not a foot…Shell's profits doubled on the same volatility hurting driversShell's trading division profiting from Middle East-driven oil price volatility while UK motorists and bill payers absorb the same volatility as higher costs is the uncomfortable mechanism behind e…Diesel prices are the real Middle East risk gauge nowDiesel markets reacting harder than crude to the latest Middle East escalation reflects a structural squeeze that's been building for months: European refining capacity has shrunk since the energy …Washington intercepts Iranian missiles, readies new Russia sanctionsTwo fronts moved at once and neither is contained. US forces say they intercepted an Iranian missile attack described as a surprise, the kind of phrase that should worry anyone pricing Gulf shippin…Oil traders are stuck waiting on OPEC+ and Iran, againCrude is holding in a tight range this week with no fresh catalyst, leaving traders parked on the same OPEC+ supply decisions and Iran sanctions questions that have driven the last month of price a…Europe is heading into winter with gas storage at the lowest level in yearsEuropean gas storage sits at historic lows for this point in the season, a position that leaves the continent with far less buffer than it had going into the last two winters when Russian pipeline …UK mortgage rates tick up, and the base rate cut window just got narrowerRates hitting their highest point in a month reflects swap markets pricing in less certainty about a Bank of England cut than they were three weeks ago, largely on the back of sticky services infla…Southwest cuts guidance on fuel costs, and hedging didn't save it this timeSouthwest just trimmed its full-year outlook after fuel expenses ate into second-quarter profit, notable because Southwest is usually the airline with the hedging book everyone else envies. Rising …Brussels is watching the yuan slide against the euro, and exporters are nervousA weaker yuan against the euro makes Chinese goods cheaper for European buyers at the exact moment the EU is trying to close tariff loopholes on everything from EVs to steel, and that timing is not…Asian tech stocks rally while oil keeps climbing, and both can't be bullish signalsA tech rally usually reflects risk appetite and cheap money expectations, while rising oil reflects supply tightness or geopolitical risk, and having both at once means investors are pricing two di…Ryanair's profit warning is what happens when hedging runs outRyanair's fuel hedges were built for a calmer Middle East, and the Iran conflict has pushed jet fuel costs past what those contracts were priced to absorb. US petrol crossing $4 a gallon again is t…Brent above $90 and London's earnings season is the first casualtyProfit warnings from FTSE-listed firms are running well ahead of last quarter's pace, and the common thread in every one of them is the same line about fuel costs and freight disruption through the…Chevron shops for a Hormuz workaround as US strikes widenOil majors don't quietly explore pipeline routes through Syria unless they think the Strait of Hormuz is a genuine liability, not a temporary scare. Chevron and Iraqi officials are looking at bypas…Pakistan's biggest copper mine is a hostage situation nowA Chinese-backed copper project sitting on one of the world's largest untapped reserves is threatening to shut down over security risk, and that single sentence should worry anyone pricing global c…A Qatari LNG tanker struck near Hormuz. Oil is up 1.5 percent. The real number to watch is the insurance premium.Every time a ship takes a hit near the Strait of Hormuz, the market reprices two things simultaneously: the barrel and the route. Yesterday's strike on a Qatari gas tanker pushed oil up roughly 1.5…Oil heads for a quarterly loss and Morgan Stanley's glut warning has teethBrent crude is on course for a quarterly decline, with Morgan Stanley citing OPEC+ production increases, weaker Chinese industrial demand, and a US economy consuming less energy per unit of output …Putin admits Russia has fuel shortages. That is a significant concession about the cost of the war.A Russian president publicly acknowledging domestic fuel supply problems is not a routine data point. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have forced the admission, and the operational lo…New Zealand dollar faces a difficult Q3Analysts are flagging that the New Zealand dollar enters Q3 with growth headwinds from weak Chinese demand and a domestic economy running below potential. For UK exporters with NZD receivables, the…Hormuz reopens. Oil heads for its worst week since the crisis began.The largest oil supply shock since the 1970s is unwinding faster than most traders priced in, and crude is paying the price. Brent has dropped roughly 27% over the past month, falling toward the mi…The IMF is embedding AI into its crisis models. That is the detail most people missedKristalina Georgieva's warning that AI will 'likely worsen overall inequality' in most scenarios is the quotable line, but the more consequential signal is institutional: the IMF is now running AI …China's AI stocks are pricing in chip-control failure. One short seller disagreesZhipu, the HSTECH index's standout performer this year, has rallied approximately 1,100% and attracted precisely one short call, which is either a sign of extraordinary conviction in Chinese AI's d…The US is backing a dynastic deal in Libya. It wants the oil, not the democracyTrump adviser Massad Boulos has spent months brokering a power-sharing arrangement built around two family networks: the Dbeibehs in the west and the Haftars in the east, with the reported plan ins…The BRICS Bank is lending South Africa $1bn for city infrastructure. The US is responding in NamibiaThe New Development Bank's approval of up to $1 billion for South Africa's eight major metropolitan municipalities, covering water, sanitation, electricity, and waste management, is part of a consi…Hong Kong's SFC is pressing ahead with the PwC-Evergrande payout despite a live court challengeThe SFC is distributing a HK$1 billion compensation pool funded by PwC Hong Kong for Evergrande minority shareholders, and it has refused to pause despite a judicial review filed by Evergrande's ow…Zhipu has rallied 1,100% and just got its first short. Both facts matter.Hedgeye's Felix Wang has put a HK$407 fair value on Zhipu as a short, running directly against the momentum that has made it the hottest name on the HSTECH Index this year, and his core argument is…The PBOC's new yuan liquidity tool is a slow-burn challenge to dollar-centric reservesThe People's Bank of China has launched new money-market instruments specifically designed to help foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds hold, invest, and manage renminbi liquidity in Ch…US futures bounce after tech selloff as Iran strikes endUS equity futures rebounded in early Thursday trading after Wednesday's sharp tech-led pullback, with confirmation that US military strikes on Iran had been completed swiftly helping to cool oil pr…Barcelona ABS conference hits record attendanceGlobal ABS 2026 recorded over 5,570 attendees in Barcelona, with Day 2 panels pivoting from Europe's securitisation scale-up to navigating geopolitical risk and private credit's evolution into a "n…Spain hits tourism records as Middle East fears divert flowsSpain welcomed 9.1 million visitors in April, the highest April figure on record, as geopolitical tensions push tourists away from traditional Middle Eastern and Eastern Mediterranean destinations.…South Korea bets big on AI chips and defense boomThe country is capturing a rare convergence of AI infrastructure demand and geopolitical defense spending just as domestic policy support lags peers. Samsung pledged $228 billion for new semiconduc…Israel and Lebanon agree to ceasefireBoth governments have committed to implementing a full ceasefire, conditional on steps by Hezbollah to withdraw forces and weapons from southern Lebanon. The agreement includes international monito…Putin locks in 50bcm gas pipeline as China hedges its betsRussia and China signed a binding construction agreement for the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline during Putin's Beijing visit, but the fine print tells a different story. The deal carries 50 billion cu…Xi tells Trump that Putin might 'regret' Ukraine invasionBeijing is quietly distancing itself from Moscow's war. During Trump's recent summit in Beijing, Xi privately told him that Putin might 'regret' his 2022 invasion decision, marking a sharp shift fr…