AI’s $800bn build-out has reached the cash-flow test

Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle are projected to spend nearly $800 billion on AI-related investment this year. Wall Street chiefs reject the bubble label, but S&P Global Ratings expects six hyperscalers to post negative free cash flow from operations in 2026 and 2027. That leaves investors pricing utilisation and monetisation, not just model quality: power constraints or slower customer uptake turn costly capacity into stranded capital. The bullish case holds if cloud revenue catches up; the impairment risk Gartner puts above $3.5 trillion by 2030 is the less comfortable boundary.