Hormuz reopens. Oil heads for its worst week since the crisis began.

The largest oil supply shock since the 1970s is unwinding faster than most traders priced in, and crude is paying the price. Brent has dropped roughly 27% over the past month, falling toward the mid-$70s as Saudi tankers begin moving through the Strait again following a preliminary US-Iran framework, with Trading Economics data putting crude near $75 on Thursday. Goldman Sachs has already moved: its Q4 2026 Brent forecast is now $80, down from $90, and its 2027 average drops to $75. The critical detail is how partial the recovery remains. Flows fell from 15 million barrels per day before the crisis to as low as 1.5 mb/d under blockade, and maritime intelligence warns no more than 10% of lost volumes can be restored quickly, meaning the risk premium will not fully evaporate until a signed deal and weeks of normalised shipping confirm the framework holds. For UK energy companies, refiners, and anyone pricing long-term supply contracts, the direction is clear but the arrival date is not.