Brazil

Vale shareholders are heading to a vote to decide whether to remove the company's board chair after the board rejected an activist push to oust him, creating a rare confrontation between institutional investors and incumbent management at one of the world's largest iron ore producers. The outcome matters for any investor with emerging market commodity exposure: if the activist bloc wins, it signals that Brazilian corporate governance reform has teeth, which reprices risk premiums across the sector. Vale's iron ore volumes are critical to Chinese steelmakers and, indirectly, to UK infrastructure supply chains still dependent on imported steel. A leadership change at this scale typically means at least six months of strategic uncertainty before capital allocation priorities become legible.

Petrobras has absorbed an estimated $2-3 billion in losses selling diesel below international prices since Iran's war began, according to board member Francisco Petros. The policy aims to prevent trucker strikes that could cripple Brazil's supply chains, echoing the 2018 crisis. Finance Minister Dario Durigan warns the Middle East conflict is driving inflation and forcing the central bank's hand on rates. With oil shocks rippling through South America's largest economy, Petrobras is effectively subsidising domestic stability at shareholders' expense while global energy markets remain in chaos.