Mexico

Nearshoring has been the theme for three years; Apollo's $20bn target is the first sign private credit is willing to underwrite it at real scale rather than just talk about it in conference panels. Mexican manufacturers riding the shift away from Chinese supply chains have needed capital that local banks won't extend at the tenors required, and Apollo's push fills that gap with the kind of direct lending that's already reshaped US mid-market finance. The risk is concentration: Mexico's peso and its courts haven't been stress-tested at this scale of foreign private credit exposure. If it works, expect Blackstone and KKR to follow with copycat vehicles inside 18 months.