Microsoft

ValueAct Capital's successful 2013 campaign against Microsoft offers a playbook for today's activists eyeing the software giant's recent decline. The firm secured a board seat by pressuring CEO Steve Ballmer's exit, generating billions in shareholder value when the stock jumped 7% on succession news. Now ValueAct is building stakes in Meta, Amazon, and Visa while Microsoft's P/E ratio lags peers, potentially signalling undervaluation or operational issues. The firm's recent moves show a preference for high-growth names over mature tech giants, but Microsoft's $3 trillion market cap remains activist catnip. With cloud growth slowing and AI competition intensifying, Microsoft could face governance pressure around capital allocation, buybacks, or strategic focus. The ghost of 2013 still haunts Redmond.

OpenAI is simultaneously attacking Anthropic and backing away from Microsoft — a two-front war that suggests the AI leadership is feeling cornered. The public spat with Anthropic isn't about technology; it's about positioning for the next funding round and enterprise contracts. Meanwhile, the Microsoft relationship that saved OpenAI from bankruptcy is becoming a liability as regulators circle and competitors cry monopoly. Sam Altman built the most valuable AI company by playing all sides. That strategy is expiring fast.