Economic Growth

Warning against 'sugar rush economics' is a direct shot at Ardern-era stimulus spending, and it signals New Zealand is choosing fiscal restraint over growth juicing well ahead of most G7 peers still running large deficits. That's defensible if inflation risk is the priority, but it caps near-term growth in an economy still working through a soft housing market and weak export demand from China. The political bet is that voters reward discipline once the sugar rush hangover from the last cycle sets in. It's a small, open economy making a large statement about fiscal credibility that bigger governments, UK included, aren't currently willing to make.

India's economy faces its biggest external shock in years as the Iran conflict exposes dangerous energy dependencies, with 85% of crude imports and over half from the Middle East now at risk. Goldman Sachs and ANZ cut growth forecasts to 6.5% from 7% as Brent crude hit $114.35, while Indian stocks fell 10% since the war began. Every $10 oil increase widens India's current account deficit by 0.4% of GDP, potentially pushing it above 3% if prices sustain $150+ levels, threatening the Goldilocks growth phase that made India the world's fastest-growing major economy.