27 April 2026Top Stories
Goldman raises oil forecast as Hormuz disruption drags on
Goldman expects Brent crude to hit $71 per barrel in Q4, up from its previous $66 forecast, but warns of $140 spikes if the Strait stays closed. The bank models 21 days of low flows followed by 30-day recovery, assuming the IEA releases a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. Middle East production has dropped 14.5 million barrels per day since the war began, mostly from precautionary shut-ins rather than field damage. If disruptions stretch to 10 weeks, Goldman sees peak prices hitting $160 with Q4 still at $115, pushing December inflation to 3.1 percent and complicating Fed rate cuts.
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