Stock Market

Hormel Foods posted Q2 net sales of $2.90 billion with 1% organic growth, beating expectations and prompting management to narrow fiscal 2025 guidance. Operating income hit $248 million while adjusted operating income reached $265 million, signalling the food giant's multi-quarter turnaround is gaining traction. The company said it's positioned for a strong second half as interim CEO Jeff Ettinger and president John Ghingo execute operational improvements. Shares rose as investors viewed the results as evidence that recent restructuring is translating into sustainable top-line and margin progress.

Unusual Machines jumped 82% to $9.77 after Donald Trump Jr joined the advisory board of the drone component maker, with volume spiking to 56 million shares versus a 121,000 daily average.

Japanese day traders have pushed Tokyo Stock Exchange volumes to ¥4-4.5 trillion daily, nearly doubling last year's ¥2-2.5 trillion as AI mania grips retail investors. The surge bypasses traditional exchanges entirely, with off-exchange trading systems capturing 10-20% of volume in hot AI names as brokers route orders through internal matching engines. This mirrors the U.S. Meme stock boom but with a structural twist: expanded NISA tax-advantaged accounts let millions funnel savings into volatile semiconductor and robotics stocks just as the Bank of Japan keeps rates near zero.

Beijing's state-backed equity support apparatus is preparing to unwind nearly all its emergency market intervention positions as foreign outflows persist. The National Team pumped 410 billion yuan ($57 billion) into ETFs tracking Chinese indices during the latest market stress, but Bloomberg Intelligence analysis suggests 90% of those holdings will be sold in H1 2026. This tests whether China's $9 trillion stock market can stand without a state backstop. The withdrawal comes as foreign investors pulled 18.2 billion yuan in the latest month alone, marking six consecutive months of outflows.

ASML jumped 8% to a record $500 billion market value as AI optimism spreads beyond foundries to toolmakers and the broader semiconductor supply chain. While TSMC's guidance for 52-56 billion capex and 30% revenue growth validates continued AI demand, emerging market fund managers are diversifying into cheaper Asian AI plays. Valuations show the opportunity: Nvidia trades at 35x forward earnings while TSMC sits at 18x and Alibaba at 13x. The rotation reflects investor confidence that AI infrastructure spending above $1 trillion will support a multilayer ecosystem, not just the obvious winners.

Better earnings growth and cheaper valuations in Taiwan and Korea's AI winners are pulling foreign money away from India for potentially two consecutive years. BofA cut its Nifty 50 earnings forecast for FY27 to 8.5% growth from 11%, well below consensus expectations of 15%, while warning Indian equities remain expensive despite recent corrections. The firm expects zero point-to-point returns this year and continued underperformance versus emerging markets. Foreign institutional investors pulled funds for six straight months while domestic institutions struggle to fully absorb the selling pressure.

Pham Nhat Vuong has committed at least $2 billion of personal wealth to VinFast just as his Vingroup shares surged roughly 1,000% over a year, creating extreme wealth volatility tied to EV speculation. When VinFast listed via SPAC, shares jumped 255% on debut, pushing market cap above $85 billion and briefly exceeding Ford and GM despite minimal sales volumes. Vuong's net worth swung from $5 billion to $44 billion and back to $21 billion within a week as the thin float amplified every trade. The recycling of Vietnamese real estate wealth into US EV manufacturing represents a high-stakes bet on breaking American automotive incumbency.

Oil at $115+ per barrel is hammering India's currency and equity markets as foreign investors pull billions from Indian assets. The rupee hit a record low of ₹93.41 per dollar while the Nifty 50 dropped 3.3% in its worst day since June. Petrol prices need to rise another ₹15-30 per litre for state oil companies to break even, but the government is using duty cuts and gradual increases to avoid an inflation spike. One proposal floating in policy circles: slash bond withholding tax and target $30-50 billion of portfolio inflows to stabilize the rupee, similar to how China waived taxes to gain bond index inclusion. The playbook mirrors 2022, when cooking oil shortages triggered export bans.

Indonesian palm oil stocks tumbled after the government introduced export allocation requirements for used cooking oil and palm residues to support its B40 biodiesel program. UCO and palm residue exports from January-November 2024 totaled 3.95 million tonnes, down 13.75% from 2023. The move echoes the three-week palm oil export ban in April-May 2022 that sent global food prices spiking and weakened the rupiah. Indonesia plans to produce 15.6 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel in 2025 and wants to prevent subsidized cooking oil from being mislabeled as UCO and exported. The world's largest palm oil producer is prioritizing domestic energy security over export revenue, tightening feedstock supply for European biodiesel plants.

A Hong Kong-based hedge fund is rotating out of AI stocks into oil tanker equities, arguing that artificial intelligence companies are overspending on capex while shipping offers better risk-adjusted returns. The move comes as China-focused hedge funds outperform global peers with the Greater China Equities Index up 15 percent in the first half, led by managers like Triata Capital's 45.1 percent gain. The shipping play reflects concerns that AI infrastructure buildout is getting ahead of monetization, while tanker stocks benefit from physical supply constraints and freight rate dynamics rather than speculative growth assumptions. The rotation signals broader hedge fund skepticism about crowded AI positions as managers seek uncorrelated returns in asset-heavy, cash-generative sectors.

Gina Rinehart is putting almost US$100 million into American weapons-makers, marking a sharp pivot from her traditional iron ore empire into the military-industrial complex. The investment comes just months after the Pentagon guaranteed floor pricing for rare earth metals that boosted her MP Materials and Lynas holdings by $300 million. Her timing looks prescient: global defense spending is accelerating while her existing rare earths portfolio positions her perfectly within US supply chain priorities. The move transforms Australia's richest woman from a mining magnate into a defense ecosystem player, complete with a $200 million veterans housing pledge that reads like political air cover.

South Korea's equity rally is running into a brick wall as 10-year government bond yields surge to 4.25%, their highest level in over two years. The market that delivered 200%+ returns in some equity funds over the past year is now seeing foreign investors dump KRW 30 trillion of Korean stocks as the yield on offer from bonds suddenly looks attractive. The trigger is Q1 GDP growth of 1.7% versus expectations of 0.9%, which should be good news but instead has markets pricing in Bank of Korea rate hikes rather than cuts.

Geopolitical thaw meets AI euphoria as markets price lower tail risk. South Korea's KOSPI hit records with a 6.5% jump, Samsung crossed $1 trillion in market cap, and China's STAR Market surged 5.5% on reopening after holiday closures. Trump's arrival in Beijing with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang signals potential cooperation on AI development despite broader trade tensions. Oil fell 1% after Trump paused Persian Gulf escort operations to make room for Iran talks, removing near-term energy price pressure from the tech rally equation.

Ryan Cohen is taking the hostile route after eBay's board reportedly rejected his takeover approach.

The DOJ's case against Citron Research founder Andrew Left isn't about short selling. It's about using 500,000 followers to manipulate stock prices through fake recommendations, then trading in the opposite direction. Prosecutors allege Left netted $16 million by claiming long positions while immediately selling, or promising 50% drops then exiting after 2-3% moves. During trial testimony, Cronos Group's CEO dismissed Left's 2018 short report as making "no sense," highlighting the quality of analysis that apparently fooled markets. The case tests whether social media influence constitutes market manipulation, with implications for every activist investor with a Twitter account. Left faces up to 25 years if convicted, but the real precedent is whether followers equal fiduciary duty in the age of viral stock calls.

ValueAct Capital's successful 2013 campaign against Microsoft offers a playbook for today's activists eyeing the software giant's recent decline. The firm secured a board seat by pressuring CEO Steve Ballmer's exit, generating billions in shareholder value when the stock jumped 7% on succession news. Now ValueAct is building stakes in Meta, Amazon, and Visa while Microsoft's P/E ratio lags peers, potentially signalling undervaluation or operational issues. The firm's recent moves show a preference for high-growth names over mature tech giants, but Microsoft's $3 trillion market cap remains activist catnip. With cloud growth slowing and AI competition intensifying, Microsoft could face governance pressure around capital allocation, buybacks, or strategic focus. The ghost of 2013 still haunts Redmond.

Gautam Adani is building the world's largest renewable-powered AI infrastructure network. His $100 billion commitment targets 5 GW of data centers by 2035, powered entirely by the Khavda project's 30 GW capacity. Adani Energy Solutions shares trade at 211x earnings, reflecting the AI proxy mania that has gripped Indian markets. The integrated play spanning ports, power, and data centers creates a $250 billion ecosystem that could reshape India's position in the global AI race. The real test comes when hyperscale loads meet the reality of 100 percent renewable power promises.

China Vanke, the country's second-largest developer, is seeking bondholder approval to delay payments after initially declaring the property downturn had bottomed out, then retracting the call. With 80 million unsold homes clogging the market and 85% of household wealth gains since 2021 evaporated, Beijing's October declaration of a property bottom looks increasingly hollow. If even a state-backed giant like Vanke can't manage its debt, the entire 'managed contraction' narrative collapses.

Korean 'Seohak Ants' nearly doubled their US stock purchases to $3.1 billion in January despite government tax incentives to redirect funds home. Interactive Brokers launched direct Korean stock access for US retail investors, reversing the flow as Korea's Kospi crossed 4,500 for the first time. The irony: as Korea becomes the world's hottest stock market, its own investors are chasing triple-leveraged US ETFs while Korean government offers 100% tax deductions to lure them back.

Polling expert Lord Hayward predicts Labour will lose 1,850 council seats in today's local elections, 75% of those defended, while Reform UK gains 1,550 seats mainly in white working-class areas. City traders are monitoring results as significant for leadership stability, with Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham mentioned as potential challengers if losses exceed 1,000 seats. The scale would mark one of the steepest mid-term collapses for a governing party since the 1990s.