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Iran War

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9

Latest edition

20 May 2026

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19 of 9

20 May 2026Top Stories

India scrambles to stem oil shock damage

Oil at $115+ per barrel is hammering India's currency and equity markets as foreign investors pull billions from Indian assets. The rupee hit a record low of ₹93.41 per dollar while the Nifty 50 dropped 3.3% in its worst day since June. Petrol prices need to rise another ₹15-30 per litre for state oil companies to break even, but the government is using duty cuts and gradual increases to avoid an inflation spike. One proposal floating in policy circles: slash bond withholding tax and target $30-50 billion of portfolio inflows to stabilize the rupee, similar to how China waived taxes to gain bond index inclusion. The playbook mirrors 2022, when cooking oil shortages triggered export bans.

From NYC unions secure six-figure pay as Jefferies raids rivals

11 May 2026Top Stories

Trump-Xi summit proceeds despite Iran war

The May 14-15 Beijing summit will happen as scheduled, six weeks after Iran tensions forced the original delay. The meeting puts Xi in a stronger position than March, when Trump needed Chinese cooperation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for oil flows. Council on Foreign Relations analysis suggests Beijing now holds leverage as Washington remains distracted by military operations. Expect limited trade progress on Boeing and soybeans, but Iran's status as China's largest crude buyer makes any oil-related concessions unlikely. The optics matter more than outcomes: both sides need stability theater.

From Trump calls Iran response 'totally unacceptable'

8 May 2026Policy & Regulation

Trump rules out oil export curbs as Iran war drives prices

Trump administration officials explicitly ruled out restricting US oil exports despite surging global demand from the Iran conflict. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told American Petroleum Institute executives such measures are not under consideration, contrasting with China's own export bans that are worsening price pressures. The decision reflects lessons from the Biden era, when similar restrictions were considered but rejected after Russia's 2022 invasion. With the Strait of Hormuz handling 140 million barrels daily remaining disrupted, the US is choosing to maintain its role as a reliable supplier rather than pursue short-term domestic relief that could backfire economically and geopolitically.

From Labour loses first councils as Starmer faces revolt

4 May 2026Top Stories

Asia's $7bn bond exodus exposes Iran war's real cost

Energy prices spiking 70% across Asia matter less than the $7.57 billion fleeing regional bonds in March alone. The IMF revised growth projections downward by 0.6% from 2025 levels, with cumulative losses through 2027 projected at 2%. Thailand introduced a war room response structure while Cambodia rationed energy. The real damage sits in supply chains: one-third of global fertilizer and 45% of semiconductor sulfur typically flow through Hormuz, creating shortages that make energy spikes look manageable. India faces $40 billion in remittance losses as Gulf jobs vanish.

From Asia bleeds $7bn as Hormuz reopening talks stall

4 May 2026Markets & Economy

Asia bond surge marks strongest April in five years

A brief Iran ceasefire opened the floodgates for Asian issuance, delivering the region's strongest April in five years. Japan's 20-year government bond auction recorded its strongest demand since 2019 as elevated yields attracted global buyers amid Bank of Japan policy shifts. The World Bank issued a record HK$8 billion five-year benchmark, the largest HKD deal by an international issuer. Corporate miners like BHP and Rio Tinto rushed to market as spreads tightened. The window remains fragile: any resumption of Middle East tensions could reverse gains, with 10-year JGB yields hitting 2.5%, the highest since 1997.

From Asia bleeds $7bn as Hormuz reopening talks stall

1 May 2026Top Stories

Singapore PM grabs direct control of national AI strategy

Lawrence Wong will personally chair Singapore's new National AI Council, abandoning the usual technocrat delegation for direct political oversight. The move follows Wong's warning of "jobless growth" from AI disruption, with Singapore now offering six months of free premium AI tools to workers taking reskilling courses. Wong's hands-on approach signals Singapore sees AI as an existential competitive advantage, not just another technology upgrade. The city-state already hosts 150+ AI R&D teams from global firms, but direct PM leadership suggests the next phase requires political muscle, not just technical competence.

From Singapore's PM to chair AI council as yen tanks 545 pips

1 May 2026Top Stories

Asian credit hits record tight spreads as money chases yield

Asian investment-grade bond spreads have reached historic lows, with the JACI IG index posting 1.08% returns year-to-date as spreads barely widened 9 basis points. The compression reflects genuine strength in Hong Kong, Korea, and Singapore, but peripheral sovereigns like Indonesia are underperforming on domestic political concerns. Eastspring argues the region offers comparable yields to developed markets while enabling diversification, but with 58% of Asian corporate debt held by companies sporting debt-to-EBITDA ratios above 4, something has to give. Either fundamentals are genuinely this good, or spreads are pricing in a world that doesn't exist.

From Singapore's PM to chair AI council as yen tanks 545 pips

10 April 2026Top Stories

New York gas prices surge 62 cents as war costs bite voters

Trump's Iran war is hitting American wallets hard, and New York's feeling it worst. Gas prices have jumped 62 cents per gallon since the conflict began in February — that's 21% higher and $200 million more out of New Yorkers' pockets. Staten Island's GOP Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis is highlighting the pain in the city's most car-dependent borough, while Governor Hochul blames Trump's 'illegal tariffs' and war for the spike. The politics are brutal: Republicans hoped tax cuts would insulate them from affordability concerns, but energy costs are wiping out those gains heading into midterms.

From Bitcoin crashes, QQQ gets competition, fertilizer crisis looms

10 April 2026Policy & Regulation

Trump threatens NATO over Europe's Iran war abstention

Trump can't quit NATO legally, but he's testing every way to hurt it. After European allies refused to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump tweeted criticism of the alliance and threatened troop withdrawals from 'uncooperative' nations. Legal experts note he can't unilaterally exit thanks to a 2023 law requiring Senate approval, but he can gut the alliance by pulling forces or blocking consensus decisions. European capitals are already accelerating defense independence as Trump hints at his 'next Conquest' post-Iran. The transatlantic relationship isn't breaking — it's bending toward a reality where America's security guarantee comes with increasingly explicit conditions.

From Bitcoin crashes, QQQ gets competition, fertilizer crisis looms

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