Iran War

Analysts are flagging that the New Zealand dollar enters Q3 with growth headwinds from weak Chinese demand and a domestic economy running below potential. For UK exporters with NZD receivables, the direction of travel is unfavourable.

Gold fell to four-month lows around $4,400 per ounce despite fresh US airstrikes on Iran, extending what has become its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The traditional safe-haven bid is being crushed by dollar strength and expectations that higher oil prices will keep central banks hawkish for longer. Silver tumbled 6% on Indian exchanges, hitting limit-down circuits. The counterintuitive move reflects a market where inflation fears from energy spikes now matter more than geopolitical risk premiums.

Finance Minister Amir Hamzah Azizan warned the 3.5% deficit target is at risk after fuel subsidies exploded to RM7 billion in April alone, roughly 10 times pre-Iran war levels. The government cut RON95 petrol quotas from 300 to 200 litres per month to contain costs, potentially saving RM5 billion annually. Oil prices near $100 per barrel are forcing a choice between fiscal discipline and political survival. With elections looming, deeper subsidy cuts risk backlash, but the current path threatens Malaysia's medium-term consolidation plan.

Oil at $115+ per barrel is hammering India's currency and equity markets as foreign investors pull billions from Indian assets. The rupee hit a record low of ₹93.41 per dollar while the Nifty 50 dropped 3.3% in its worst day since June. Petrol prices need to rise another ₹15-30 per litre for state oil companies to break even, but the government is using duty cuts and gradual increases to avoid an inflation spike. One proposal floating in policy circles: slash bond withholding tax and target $30-50 billion of portfolio inflows to stabilize the rupee, similar to how China waived taxes to gain bond index inclusion. The playbook mirrors 2022, when cooking oil shortages triggered export bans.

The May 14-15 Beijing summit will happen as scheduled, six weeks after Iran tensions forced the original delay. The meeting puts Xi in a stronger position than March, when Trump needed Chinese cooperation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for oil flows. Council on Foreign Relations analysis suggests Beijing now holds leverage as Washington remains distracted by military operations. Expect limited trade progress on Boeing and soybeans, but Iran's status as China's largest crude buyer makes any oil-related concessions unlikely. The optics matter more than outcomes: both sides need stability theater.

Trump administration officials explicitly ruled out restricting US oil exports despite surging global demand from the Iran conflict. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told American Petroleum Institute executives such measures are not under consideration, contrasting with China's own export bans that are worsening price pressures. The decision reflects lessons from the Biden era, when similar restrictions were considered but rejected after Russia's 2022 invasion. With the Strait of Hormuz handling 140 million barrels daily remaining disrupted, the US is choosing to maintain its role as a reliable supplier rather than pursue short-term domestic relief that could backfire economically and geopolitically.

Energy prices spiking 70% across Asia matter less than the $7.57 billion fleeing regional bonds in March alone. The IMF revised growth projections downward by 0.6% from 2025 levels, with cumulative losses through 2027 projected at 2%. Thailand introduced a war room response structure while Cambodia rationed energy. The real damage sits in supply chains: one-third of global fertilizer and 45% of semiconductor sulfur typically flow through Hormuz, creating shortages that make energy spikes look manageable. India faces $40 billion in remittance losses as Gulf jobs vanish.

A brief Iran ceasefire opened the floodgates for Asian issuance, delivering the region's strongest April in five years. Japan's 20-year government bond auction recorded its strongest demand since 2019 as elevated yields attracted global buyers amid Bank of Japan policy shifts. The World Bank issued a record HK$8 billion five-year benchmark, the largest HKD deal by an international issuer. Corporate miners like BHP and Rio Tinto rushed to market as spreads tightened. The window remains fragile: any resumption of Middle East tensions could reverse gains, with 10-year JGB yields hitting 2.5%, the highest since 1997.

Lawrence Wong will personally chair Singapore's new National AI Council, abandoning the usual technocrat delegation for direct political oversight. The move follows Wong's warning of "jobless growth" from AI disruption, with Singapore now offering six months of free premium AI tools to workers taking reskilling courses. Wong's hands-on approach signals Singapore sees AI as an existential competitive advantage, not just another technology upgrade. The city-state already hosts 150+ AI R&D teams from global firms, but direct PM leadership suggests the next phase requires political muscle, not just technical competence.

Asian investment-grade bond spreads have reached historic lows, with the JACI IG index posting 1.08% returns year-to-date as spreads barely widened 9 basis points. The compression reflects genuine strength in Hong Kong, Korea, and Singapore, but peripheral sovereigns like Indonesia are underperforming on domestic political concerns. Eastspring argues the region offers comparable yields to developed markets while enabling diversification, but with 58% of Asian corporate debt held by companies sporting debt-to-EBITDA ratios above 4, something has to give. Either fundamentals are genuinely this good, or spreads are pricing in a world that doesn't exist.

Trump's Iran war is hitting American wallets hard, and New York's feeling it worst. Gas prices have jumped 62 cents per gallon since the conflict began in February — that's 21% higher and $200 million more out of New Yorkers' pockets. Staten Island's GOP Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis is highlighting the pain in the city's most car-dependent borough, while Governor Hochul blames Trump's 'illegal tariffs' and war for the spike. The politics are brutal: Republicans hoped tax cuts would insulate them from affordability concerns, but energy costs are wiping out those gains heading into midterms.

Trump can't quit NATO legally, but he's testing every way to hurt it. After European allies refused to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump tweeted criticism of the alliance and threatened troop withdrawals from 'uncooperative' nations. Legal experts note he can't unilaterally exit thanks to a 2023 law requiring Senate approval, but he can gut the alliance by pulling forces or blocking consensus decisions. European capitals are already accelerating defense independence as Trump hints at his 'next Conquest' post-Iran. The transatlantic relationship isn't breaking — it's bending toward a reality where America's security guarantee comes with increasingly explicit conditions.