Is the UK economy growing?

Yes. The UK economy is growing. The latest Office for National Statistics estimate has real GDP rising 0.4% in July 2026, after growth of 0.3% in June and no growth in May. On the less volatile three-month measure, GDP also grew 0.4% in the three months to July compared with the three months to April. That was the eighth consecutive three-month-on-three-month increase.

The important qualification is composition. Services grew 0.6% over the latest three months and provided the growth. Production fell 0.5% and construction fell 0.5%. So the answer is clearly “yes” at the whole-economy level, but the expansion is not equally strong across sectors.

What happened in July?

Monthly services output rose 0.4% in July. Production rose 0.2% and construction rose 0.1%, so all three main sectors increased on the month. Within services, information and communication was a notable positive contributor, while wholesale and retail trade was a drag.

The ONS said computer programming, consultancy and related activities grew 3.5% in July and noted that many of the businesses reporting the largest turnover increases were involved in artificial intelligence and cloud-computing activity. The ONS also cautioned that its data cannot quantify the exact contribution of those activities, which is a useful distinction between an observed industry increase and a clean “AI added X to GDP” claim.

The three-month picture is more mixed

The rolling quarter smooths some of the monthly noise. GDP grew 0.4% in the three months to July, with services up 0.6%. Production and construction both contracted by 0.5%. Consumer-facing services grew 0.5% over the same period, even though they fell 0.4% in July itself.

That is a better description of the current economy than either “Britain is booming” or “Britain is in recession”. Service activity is expanding enough to keep aggregate output growing, while parts of the industrial and construction economy remain weak.

How does this compare with a year ago?

GDP was 1.3% higher in the three months to July than in the same three months a year earlier. On the monthly comparison, July GDP was 1.6% higher than July 2025. Over that rolling year-on-year period, services were up 1.7%, production was up 0.5% and construction was down 2.3%.

The annual comparison reinforces the same point: aggregate growth is positive, but it is being generated unevenly. A national GDP number is therefore a poor substitute for sector-level analysis when you are trying to understand a particular UK company.

What about GDP per person?

The latest quarterly estimate showed real GDP per head rising 0.4% in Q2 2026 and 1.0% from a year earlier. That matters because total GDP can rise simply because the population grows. GDP per head is not a full measure of living standards, but it is a useful check on whether output growth is keeping pace with population.

For much of the recent period, positive headline GDP sat alongside weak or falling output per person. The Q2 data improved that picture. The September quarterly national-accounts release will update it with additional information and revisions.

How fast is the UK expected to grow in 2026?

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s March 2026 central forecast was for real GDP growth of 1.1% in 2026. That remains a forecast rather than a scorecard for each monthly release. The Bank of England’s July assessment also described demand as soft and the labour market as loose even while output continued to expand.

The current data fit a modest-growth story better than either a recession or a strong expansion. The economy is producing more, but the labour market is softer and the sector mix is uneven. For the downside case, see the UK recession-risk page. For household demand, see UK consumer spending.

What would change the answer?

A single negative month would not be enough. The more serious warning would be a sequence of broad-based contractions that drags the three-month measure down, especially if it coincides with rising unemployment and weaker household demand. Conversely, a broadening of growth from services into production, construction and investment would make the expansion more durable.

The next quarterly national-accounts release is due on 30 September 2026 and the next monthly GDP release on 15 October. The October release will also incorporate Blue Book 2026 revisions, so some historical growth rates may change.

Primary sources

Checked 11 September 2026 after the ONS July GDP release. Early GDP estimates are revised as more information arrives.