Energy Markets

Beach Energy CEO Brett Woods is positioning the company as both buyer and takeover target after Australia's domestic gas reservation push increased strategic value for gas-focused producers. Woods cut 30% of headcount in March and plans to slash production guidance by about 20% at a June 18 strategy day, resetting expectations before pursuing growth through M&A. Beach's gas-weighted portfolio across Cooper, Perth, and Otway basins aligns with policy preferences for reliable domestic supply over LNG exports. Seven Group Holdings' 30%+ stake and activist reputation makes Beach a logical consolidation platform for Australian gas assets.

Goldman expects Brent crude to hit $71 per barrel in Q4, up from its previous $66 forecast, but warns of $140 spikes if the Strait stays closed. The bank models 21 days of low flows followed by 30-day recovery, assuming the IEA releases a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. Middle East production has dropped 14.5 million barrels per day since the war began, mostly from precautionary shut-ins rather than field damage. If disruptions stretch to 10 weeks, Goldman sees peak prices hitting $160 with Q4 still at $115, pushing December inflation to 3.1 percent and complicating Fed rate cuts.

Brent crude plunged 13% to around $95 per barrel following Trump's Iran ceasefire announcement, marking the steepest oil drop since the 1991 Gulf War. The selloff reflects hopes Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 25% of maritime oil trade, though analysts warn shipping companies need stronger assurances before resuming tanker operations. US gasoline remains elevated at $4.16 per gallon, up from $2.98 before the conflict, while Middle Eastern producers had cut 7 million barrels daily in March.