Gold Prices

US hiring slowed sharply in June, and the Federal Reserve's hesitation on rates suddenly looks less like caution and more like patience with a plan. Nonfarm payrolls came in well below expectations, gold climbed on the back of falling rate-hike odds, and Wall Street is now pricing in the kind of easing cycle that makes the last eighteen months of elevated borrowing costs look like a policy overshoot. The tension worth watching: equity markets are still pricing near-perfection, which means the rally is now running ahead of the earnings story. Consumers are already feeling the squeeze from prior tightening, with analysts flagging that real spending power is thinning. For UK investors with dollar-denominated assets, a Fed cut cycle into a softening US economy reprices the growth premium they have been holding onto.

Gold pulled back as the US-Iran halt-in-strikes announcement reduced immediate safe-haven demand. The move is mechanically consistent with reduced geopolitical premium, but with talks yet to produce any substantive agreement, the retreat looks temporary.

Gold fell to four-month lows around $4,400 per ounce despite fresh US airstrikes on Iran, extending what has become its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The traditional safe-haven bid is being crushed by dollar strength and expectations that higher oil prices will keep central banks hawkish for longer. Silver tumbled 6% on Indian exchanges, hitting limit-down circuits. The counterintuitive move reflects a market where inflation fears from energy spikes now matter more than geopolitical risk premiums.

Spot gold extended gains to around $4,585 per ounce as reports of a US-Iran ceasefire extension eased inflation concerns tied to energy supply disruptions. Silver jumped 1.2% to $78.68 while the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell marginally, supporting precious metals. The move reflects reduced geopolitical premium and shifting Fed expectations as oil price risks subside. Gold has traded in a narrow range since its earlier war-related decline, balancing safe-haven demand against prospects of easier policy if growth concerns persist.

Gold rose above $4,700/oz as signs of U.S.-Iran progress shift trader focus from geopolitical risk to the inflation outlook. Spot gold gained over 1% after touching March lows, with CFTC data showing net long positions up 3,924 contracts to 91,574 as speculators bet on lower-for-longer rates if Hormuz reopening eases oil prices. The move reflects markets pricing in reduced energy-driven inflation rather than safe-haven demand, with Fed minutes showing policymakers ready to tighten if inflation stays above 2%. Silver fell 1.3% to $84.98/oz while the SPDR Gold Trust saw holdings drop 0.2% to 1,041.74 metric tons, suggesting institutional profit-taking.

Bao Tin Manh Hai is preparing for a Q4 IPO after revenue surged over 1,000% in 2025 to VND 27.9 trillion, positioning the 12-store chain to become Vietnam's largest 24K gold retailer. Chairman Vu Hung Son, who also serves as Vice Chair of Vietnam's Gold Trading Association, is betting that regulatory changes will formalize a $427 trillion market still dominated 70% by traditional family-run shops. The company plans to expand from 12 stores to 450 by 2030, capitalizing on regulatory pressure that could squeeze informal competitors lacking proper compliance systems.

US strikes on Iranian military targets killed yesterday's peace rally in precious metals. Gold held near $4,697 per ounce after Iranian attacks on three Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz escalated the three-month conflict. The metal is down 11 percent since the war began, pressured by inflation fears that keep interest rates elevated. Trump's social media hints at deal proximity have repeatedly moved markets, but the latest violence suggests the Hormuz blockade will drag into summer, keeping energy prices elevated and Fed easing off the table.

Gold held steady after a second weekly decline as traders parsed mixed signals from Trump's Hormuz escort plan and ongoing Iran negotiations. The administration reviews a new Iranian proposal to reopen the strait while postponing nuclear talks, with core US demands unchanged: keeping shipping routes open and limiting Iran's 460kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. Reports of a tanker attack in the waterway cast doubt over Trump's neutral ship guidance plan. Oil prices steadied despite the incidents. Iran's foreign minister signaled openness to talks after meeting Putin, but Supreme Leader Khamenei previously rejected US conditions outright.

Gold's safe-haven appeal is losing to inflation fears as US-Iran talks stall and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Higher oil prices from the supply disruption are driving expectations of prolonged high interest rates, making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive despite geopolitical tensions. The metal is on track for a weekly decline as investors bet central banks will prioritize fighting oil-driven inflation over cutting rates. Gold's dual role as inflation hedge and rate-sensitive asset is creating conflicting signals for traders.

The Australian dollar's dominant run against New Zealand's currency is running out of steam after hitting three-year highs. Strategists see the AUD/NZD rally peaking as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish rhetoric bolsters the kiwi's appeal, while both currencies benefit from gold's surge to record $5,000-plus per ounce. The fundamental driver remains: Australia's economy grew 1.8% while New Zealand contracted 0.6% since June, but RBNZ signals may reverse that divergence. With the AUD at key support around 1.0980 against the NZD, currency traders are watching whether New Zealand's 5.1% unemployment rate has finally peaked.