Skip to main content

Briefed Daily

Japan's AI retail frenzy doubles trading volume

Plus oil drops on Iran deal hopes and China doubles down on coal power.

6 desks·15 stories·← All editions
ShareXLinkedInWhatsApp

Top Stories

Japanese retail traders double Tokyo volumes chasing AI fever

Japanese day traders have pushed Tokyo Stock Exchange volumes to ¥4-4.5 trillion daily, nearly doubling last year's ¥2-2.5 trillion as AI mania grips retail investors. The surge bypasses traditional exchanges entirely, with off-exchange trading systems capturing 10-20% of volume in hot AI names as brokers route orders through internal matching engines. This mirrors the U.S. Meme stock boom but with a structural twist: expanded NISA tax-advantaged accounts let millions funnel savings into volatile semiconductor and robotics stocks just as the Bank of Japan keeps rates near zero.

Oil futures drop as ships move toward reopened Hormuz

Brent crude fell 3% to $111/bbl after at least one vessel successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling partial reopening of the chokepoint that carries 20% of global oil supplies. Iranian state media reported 30 vessels crossing following Trump-Xi talks that affirmed the need for "free flow of energy," while LSEG ship tracking showed a Panama-flagged tanker managed by Japan's Eneos completing passage. The move unwound weeks of $100+ pricing, but 63 laden VLCCs remain trapped inside the Persian Gulf with another 55 waiting to enter.

China mine blast kills 82, coking coal futures hit daily limit

A gas explosion at Shanxi province's Liushenyu mine killed 82 workers and triggered daily limit moves in Chinese coking coal futures as traders priced in supply disruptions and safety crackdowns. The mine, flagged as disaster-prone for high gas content in 2024, provided blueprints that didn't match actual underground layouts, hampering rescue efforts in China's deadliest coal accident since 2009. President Xi ordered a "rigorous and uncompromising" investigation while state authorities detained company officials, setting up nationwide mining inspections that typically force temporary production cuts across coal-producing regions.

Indian bond investors tap soaring swap rates to juice returns

Indian debt fund managers are layering interest rate swaps over bond portfolios as swap rates hit multi-year highs above comparable government bond yields. Five-year swaps are trading around 6.58% while the benchmark 10-year G-Sec sits near 7%, creating arbitrage opportunities for funds receiving fixed in swaps while holding physical bonds. Trading Economics data shows the 10-year yield at 7.09% on May 22, its highest since mid-2024, as oil price shocks and fiscal pressures drive both bonds and derivatives higher.

Stellantis finds lifeline in Chinese EV partnerships

Western automakers are abandoning the dream of outbuilding Chinese EV leaders alone, instead partnering with local upstarts for technology and platforms. Stellantis's tie-up with Leapmotor exemplifies the shift, while Volkswagen plans 40 new China models over three years including two co-developed with XPeng launching in 2026. Chinese EV sales surged from 900,000 units in 2020 to 5.1 million, capturing 24% of new car sales through aggressive pricing and software integration that Western brands struggled to match. The partnerships signal that Chinese firms have moved from local challengers to core technology suppliers in the global auto industry.

Tech & AI

Bosworth takes charge of Meta's AI-native workforce transformation

Mark Zuckerberg handed his longtime lieutenant Andrew Bosworth direct control of Meta's "AI For Work" initiative, signaling a shift from metaverse dreams to AI-first operations. Bosworth, who already runs Reality Labs' $63.6 billion in cumulative losses as CTO, now oversees internal AI integration across engineering, content moderation, and sales as Meta pushes projected 2026 capex to $115-135 billion. The move puts one executive at the intersection of R&D, hardware, and workforce transformation rather than dispersing AI leadership across multiple lieutenants. Bosworth was also sworn in as Army Reserve Lieutenant Colonel for the Executive Innovation Corps, underlining Silicon Valley's deeper military ties.

Chinese firms accelerate coal plant plans despite climate pledges

Chinese companies proposed a record 161 GW of new coal power in 2025, even as Beijing committed to peak emissions before 2030 and phase down coal after 2025. Global Energy Monitor data shows 291 GW still in the pipeline despite clean energy meeting all net power demand growth as coal generation actually fell. The disconnect reflects local economic stimulus priorities, with coal mining companies moving downstream into power generation to lock in demand before potential restrictions. China accounted for 93% of global coal construction starts in 2024, adding 78 GW in 2025 alone while the rest of the world added just 19 GW.

Markets & Economy

Gold jumps as Iran deal prospects temper inflation fears

Gold rose above $4,700/oz as signs of U.S.-Iran progress shift trader focus from geopolitical risk to the inflation outlook. Spot gold gained over 1% after touching March lows, with CFTC data showing net long positions up 3,924 contracts to 91,574 as speculators bet on lower-for-longer rates if Hormuz reopening eases oil prices. The move reflects markets pricing in reduced energy-driven inflation rather than safe-haven demand, with Fed minutes showing policymakers ready to tighten if inflation stays above 2%. Silver fell 1.3% to $84.98/oz while the SPDR Gold Trust saw holdings drop 0.2% to 1,041.74 metric tons, suggesting institutional profit-taking.

European gas plunges 8% on U.S.-Iran deal optimism

Dutch TTF futures dropped over 8% to €46-48/MWh as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. Is "nearing the end of the war in Iran" and expects gas prices "with a three in front of it." The move reflects Europe's heavy reliance on LNG imports after cutting Russian pipeline gas, making the continent vulnerable to Hormuz disruptions that affect Qatari LNG flows. Oil prices fell below $100/bbl on the same headlines as traders priced in potential Iranian supply returns and normalized shipping costs. European utilities face margin relief, but volatility remains elevated with no final deal signed.

Saudi Arabia's trillion-dollar spending spree hits the brakes

Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund will cut foreign assets from 30% to 18% of its $925 billion portfolio as megaproject costs force a strategic retreat from global buying sprees. PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan signaled the pivot at October's Future Investment Initiative, while Neom's $1 trillion budget faces scaling back amid slower foreign investment inflows than originally projected. The kingdom is shifting focus to AI partnerships, including talks with Andreessen Horowitz on a $40 billion AI fund, as Vision 2030's delivery deadline forces hard choices between global prestige projects and domestic transformation. U.S. Equity holdings already dropped from $35 billion to $20.6 billion between end-2023 and June 2024.

Multi-job workforce hits decade high as workers enter 'survival mode'

American multiple jobholders have stayed above 5% of total employment for 11 straight months, hitting a 5.19% moving average not seen since December 2009. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows 8.2 million Americans working multiple jobs as real wages rose just 0.1% over 12 months while essential costs outpaced income gains. Deputy's analysis of 120,000 shift workers found poly-employment more than doubled between 2021-2023, with over 60% being women in hospitality, healthcare, and retail. The trend spans beyond gig work into stable dual roles as workers patch together full-time income from multiple part-time positions, driven by what economists call financial instability rather than career choice.

Business & Strategy

UK's craft beer boom goes flat as breweries call last orders

Britain's brewery count is falling after growing from 500 in the early 2000s to over 3,000 by the late 2010s, with insolvencies hitting 45 in the year to March 2023 versus 15 the prior year. Energy bills that jumped 300-400% at peak wholesale prices, grain cost spikes from Ukraine war disruption, and market saturation in urban areas are squeezing margins just as younger consumers embrace moderation and no-alcohol alternatives. Pub closures accelerated to one per day in 2023, with 383 permanently lost in the first half alone, while supermarkets have rationalized craft ranges toward larger brands. The shakeout reflects broader consumer habit shifts: drinking less frequently but trading up in quality per occasion.

Policy & Regulation

Indonesia readies state control over $65bn commodity exports

Indonesia is finalizing a centralized export framework for crude palm oil, coal, and ferroalloys through its Danantara sovereign wealth fund vehicle, potentially affecting $65 billion in annual commodity shipments. Trade Vice Minister Dyah Roro Esti told Bloomberg an update would come within weeks, following President Prabowo's claim that Indonesia lost $908 billion over 34 years to under-invoicing and export manipulation. The policy will route transactions through a state-managed digital platform starting January 2027, raising concerns among palm oil producers about contract continuity and pricing flexibility in niche markets. Indonesian commodity-linked equities have already declined on implementation uncertainty.

Xi lambasted Japan's 'remilitarisation' in closed-door Trump summit

Chinese President Xi Jinping sharply criticized Japan's defense buildup during November's Beijing summit with Trump, accusing Tokyo of "remilitarisation" as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi pushes defense spending toward 2% of GDP by 2027. Sources briefed on the talks told the Financial Times Xi specifically targeted Japan's counter-strike capabilities and deepening U.S. Alliance ties, framing them as regional threats. The comments came amid escalating China-Japan tensions over the East China Sea and Taiwan, with Japan identifying China as its "greatest strategic challenge" while acquiring long-range missiles and expanding rapid deployment forces. Despite the diplomatic friction, no major agreements emerged from the Trump-Xi meeting on Iran, Taiwan, semiconductors, or rare earths.

Quick Hits

Midlife women tap government loans they may never repay

Growing numbers of women in their 50s are using taxpayer-backed loans to supplement stagnant wages, exploiting income-contingent repayment terms that effectively function as deferred welfare. The trend reflects broader midlife financial pressure as the motherhood penalty persists into later careers while U.S. Household debt hit $18.2 trillion.

Inside the full edition

  • Tech & AI · 2 stories
  • Markets & Economy · 4 stories
  • Business & Strategy · 1 story
  • Policy & Regulation · 2 stories
  • Quick Hits · 1 story

Continue reading

The briefing keeps going.
Your inbox is free.

Subscribe free to read the full edition. In your inbox every weekday at 06:45.

Subscribe free

One email a day. Unsubscribe any time.