Iran

Brent crude surged over 1% to above $111 per barrel as Trump's escalation threats offset reports of intense negotiations with Iran through multiple channels. US gasoline prices hit $4.11 per gallon, up 13 cents from last week and the highest since 2022. Eight OPEC+ nations agreed to boost May production by an undisclosed amount, but availability remains uncertain if the Strait remains blocked. Trump's zigzagging between war threats and peace talks is creating whiplash in energy markets, with one trader noting prices could easily spike above $120 if Tuesday's deadline passes without resolution.

The escalating Iran conflict is draining $600 million per day from Middle East tourism as major aviation hubs process a fraction of their normal 526,000 daily passengers. Over 5,000 flights were cancelled in the conflict's first two days, threatening the region's projected $207 billion in 2026 visitor spending. Tourism Economics models show a short 1-3 week conflict could cut arrivals by 11%, while a two-month war could slash 27% and cost $56 billion. The sector's recovery potential depends entirely on swift conflict resolution and coordinated government support.

Pope Leo XIV, the first US-born pontiff, used Easter Sunday to call for dialogue and an end to the US-Israel war on Iran, urging leaders to lay down weapons and choose peace over force. His appeal directly contrasts with Trump's Easter threat to strike Iranian power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed past Tuesday night. The Pope referenced reports that Trump wants to end the war and hopes for an "off-ramp," while Trump invoked Christian faith to justify military action. Leo's US roots could pressure Catholic voters and business leaders caught between faith-based peace appeals and economic pain from $4.11 gasoline.