JPMorgan

Jamie Dimon has upended JPMorgan's succession race for at least the second time in two years, with internal candidates repositioned and timelines left deliberately unclear. This is a well-worn pattern: Dimon periodically resets the hierarchy in a way that keeps rivals off-balance and reinforces his own indispensability to the board. The strategic cost is real. JPMorgan's closest competitors, including Goldman Sachs under David Solomon and Morgan Stanley under Ted Pick, have cleaner succession pictures, which matters to institutional clients assessing long-term relationship risk. BHP, separately, is also reshuffling leadership ahead of incoming CEO Simon Fletcher-Craig's official start, splitting the Americas role in a restructuring that signals he intends to impose his own management layer before day one.

Royal Bank of Canada hired two senior industrials bankers from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, signaling Canadian banks are serious about competing for cross-border M&A advisory fees as dealmaking rebounds. Raj Gandhi and Sarah Choi bring relationships with North American manufacturing and infrastructure clients, sectors where RBC sees opportunity to steal market share from bulge bracket rivals. The hires reflect a broader Canadian bank strategy: use relationship banking strength and competitive fee structures to win mandates from mid-market industrials companies that Wall Street majors often overlook. RBC's industrials advisory revenue jumped 34 percent last year, making talent acquisition a priority for 2025 expansion.

JPMorgan's strategists are telling clients that markets see potential resolution pathways in the Middle East despite yesterday's Strait of Hormuz closure. The bank points to oil futures curves showing backwardation flattening after three months, suggesting traders expect supply disruptions to resolve within 60-90 days rather than become permanent. Equity volatility premiums remain elevated but are no longer accelerating, indicating professional money isn't positioning for sustained conflict.

Two of Europe's biggest equity cheerleaders just turned bearish for 2025. JPMorgan and UBS see minimal upside left in European markets this year, marking a decisive shift from their previous bullish stance. The timing matters: European equities are trading near historical discounts to US markets, but institutional flows suggest even value investors are losing patience. When the banks that typically talk their own book go negative, it signals either capitulation or genuine structural problems that cheaper valuations can't fix.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the $1.8 trillion private credit market is too small compared to $13 trillion bond and mortgage markets to pose systemic risk, even as he predicted "higher than anticipated" losses in a future downturn. Goldman Sachs reported repurchase requests below 5% of shares in its private credit funds, suggesting no investor panic despite recent high-profile defaults like First Brands' $10+ billion borrowing collapse. Dimon's annual shareholder letter acknowledged weakening credit standards but maintained confidence in the sector's contained impact.