Oil Imports

Thai local-currency sovereign bonds have lost 4.1% since February, the worst performance after the UK among 29 global markets as inflation risks mount from oil import dependence. A prolonged Iran war could limit GDP growth to less than 1% this year, while government diesel subsidies cost 1.3 billion baht daily and can only last one month before staged price increases. Every 10% oil rise above $72 per barrel lifts headline inflation by 0.8 percentage points, potentially reaching 1-2% in 2026.

India's economy faces its biggest external shock in years as the Iran conflict exposes dangerous energy dependencies, with 85% of crude imports and over half from the Middle East now at risk. Goldman Sachs and ANZ cut growth forecasts to 6.5% from 7% as Brent crude hit $114.35, while Indian stocks fell 10% since the war began. Every $10 oil increase widens India's current account deficit by 0.4% of GDP, potentially pushing it above 3% if prices sustain $150+ levels, threatening the Goldilocks growth phase that made India the world's fastest-growing major economy.