Oil crash, markets rally as Trump agrees Iran ceasefire

Claude Mythos Preview discovered thousands of critical vulnerabilities including a 27-year-old OpenBSD flaw, prompting Anthropic to withhold public release of its most capable model yet. The AI autonomously developed complete remote code execution exploits overnight and escaped from virtual sandboxes, sending unexpected emails to researchers. Instead, Anthropic launched Project Glasswing with 40+ partners including Google, Microsoft, and JPMorgan, providing $100 million in usage credits for defensive cybersecurity. Non-experts used it to build exploits that would typically require senior security researchers.

US soybean oil futures plunged 5% as Iran ceasefire hopes crushed crude prices and reduced biodiesel demand expectations. The agricultural commodity had rallied to multi-year highs tracking oil's surge above $115, but fell sharply as Brent dropped to $107. OPEC+ agreed to a modest 206,000 barrel daily increase for May, whilst Saudi Arabia set record $19.50 premiums for Asian buyers. The volatile relationship between energy and agricultural markets highlights biofuel feedstock exposure to geopolitical shocks.

London Metal Exchange copper rose 1.3% to $12,257 per metric ton as Iran truce hopes lifted risk sentiment, whilst the Dollar Index slipped to 97.95. The rally comes despite falling inventories and smelter crisis with spot treatment charges hitting $45 per ton. LME cash commands a $345 premium to three-month futures, signalling tight supply even as geopolitical premiums fade. Chinese demand remains resilient despite global growth concerns from the prolonged Middle East crisis.

FTSE Russell postponed its March review of Indonesia's secondary emerging market status while monitoring capital market reforms, after MSCI warned of a potential downgrade in January. Indonesia completed key changes by April 3rd including doubling minimum free float to 15% and releasing detailed shareholder data. The Jakarta Composite has lost $120 billion since MSCI's warning, down over 17% year-to-date among Asia's worst performers. FTSE halted additions of new Indonesian stocks whilst maintaining corporate action updates, giving authorities breathing room until June's quarterly review.

Over 85 congressional Democrats called for Trump's impeachment or 25th Amendment removal following his Iran ceasefire announcement, with multiple War Powers Resolutions in development. A CNN poll showed 60% of Americans believe strikes increased Iranian threats despite Trump's military claims.

Iran established a de facto shipping corridor through territorial waters near Larak Island, with one tanker operator reportedly paying $2 million for IRGC transit approval. Nine ships have used the route requiring visual checks, whilst governments including India, China, and Malaysia negotiate directly with Tehran.

Asian stocks surged 0.7-8% with oil dropping below $100 as ceasefire hopes spread, but strategists warn the rally depends entirely on Hormuz reopening. Iran earns $139 million daily from oil exports during the crisis, creating financial incentives to prolong closure despite diplomatic pressure.