Middle East

Spot gold extended gains to around $4,585 per ounce as reports of a US-Iran ceasefire extension eased inflation concerns tied to energy supply disruptions. Silver jumped 1.2% to $78.68 while the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell marginally, supporting precious metals. The move reflects reduced geopolitical premium and shifting Fed expectations as oil price risks subside. Gold has traded in a narrow range since its earlier war-related decline, balancing safe-haven demand against prospects of easier policy if growth concerns persist.

Jefferies hired Gideon Volschenk from Standard Chartered to lead its metals and mining investment banking in EMEA, signaling aggressive expansion in energy transition deals. The move comes as global decarbonization drives M&A in copper, nickel, lithium, and rare earths, while mining majors like BHP and Rio Tinto reposition portfolios toward critical minerals. Jefferies often ranks in the top 15 globally for mid-cap M&A and is building sector specialist coverage to compete with bulge bracket banks. Standard Chartered's loss of a senior commodities banker suggests competitive pressure for talent as banks reassess focus between traditional trade finance and pure-play investment banking.

US strikes on Iranian military targets killed yesterday's peace rally in precious metals. Gold held near $4,697 per ounce after Iranian attacks on three Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz escalated the three-month conflict. The metal is down 11 percent since the war began, pressured by inflation fears that keep interest rates elevated. Trump's social media hints at deal proximity have repeatedly moved markets, but the latest violence suggests the Hormuz blockade will drag into summer, keeping energy prices elevated and Fed easing off the table.

Regal Partners reported funds under management surpassing A$20 billion as of September 2025, driven by A$723 million in quarterly net inflows into inflation-sensitive strategies including royalties and tactical opportunities funds. The alternative investment manager's hedge funds reached A$9.9 billion with A$316 million in new client money as institutions seek protection against persistent price pressures. Recent acquisitions of Merricks Capital and Ark Capital Partners expand the platform into commercial real estate debt and hotel opportunities, positioning Regal to capture more of Australia's A$1.3 trillion superannuation pool. Growth accelerated despite leadership changes at VGI Partners following A$17.6 million losses.

Goldman Sachs strategist identifies investment opportunities emerging from Middle East shipping disruptions.

JPMorgan's strategists are telling clients that markets see potential resolution pathways in the Middle East despite yesterday's Strait of Hormuz closure. The bank points to oil futures curves showing backwardation flattening after three months, suggesting traders expect supply disruptions to resolve within 60-90 days rather than become permanent. Equity volatility premiums remain elevated but are no longer accelerating, indicating professional money isn't positioning for sustained conflict.

American and Iranian officials are drafting a framework agreement that could end the year-long Middle East conflict within months, according to sources close to the talks. The deal would freeze Iran's uranium enrichment at current levels in exchange for sanctions relief worth an estimated $90 billion. Oil futures fell 4 percent overnight as traders priced in reduced supply disruption risk. If successful, the agreement would mark the most significant US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough since the 2015 nuclear deal Trump abandoned.

HSBC's chief is warning that Middle East conflict is denting global confidence — which translates to: international money is getting nervous about everything, not just regional risk. Banks see economic sentiment shifts months before politicians admit them, and when Europe's largest bank starts flagging broader confidence issues, it's worth listening. The conflict isn't just about energy prices or shipping routes; it's about whether the post-Cold War stability that underpinned globalisation is actually over. HSBC manages money flows across every major economy — they're not speculating, they're reporting.

New Zealand's central bank held rates at 2.25% but Governor Anna Breman warned of "decisive and timely" increases if core inflation accelerates, with the bank now forecasting annual inflation spiking to 4.2% in June—well above the 3% target ceiling. The Middle East conflict has "materially altered" the outlook, disrupting oil, gas and petrochemical supplies critical to transport and agriculture. The RBNZ cut rates 325 basis points since August 2024 but supply chain disruptions may force a hawkish pivot.

The escalating Iran conflict is draining $600 million per day from Middle East tourism as major aviation hubs process a fraction of their normal 526,000 daily passengers. Over 5,000 flights were cancelled in the conflict's first two days, threatening the region's projected $207 billion in 2026 visitor spending. Tourism Economics models show a short 1-3 week conflict could cut arrivals by 11%, while a two-month war could slash 27% and cost $56 billion. The sector's recovery potential depends entirely on swift conflict resolution and coordinated government support.