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Taiwan overtakes UK market cap on AI boom

When small islands start outpunching continents, something has shifted.

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Taiwan's $4tn market cap overtakes UK as AI valuations spiral

Taiwan's stock market hit $4 trillion in value this week, edging past the UK for the first time. TSMC alone now trades at £615 billion, making it worth more than Shell, BP, and Vodafone combined. The island nation's semiconductor monopoly has turned geopolitical risk into a premium, not a discount. Every ChatGPT query and Tesla autopilot decision runs through Taiwanese fabs, creating the strangest economic moat in modern history.

OpenAI launches cost-per-click ads this week

OpenAI will start selling ads inside ChatGPT responses within days, marking its first serious revenue diversification beyond subscriptions. The move puts it in direct competition with Google's $307 billion search ad business. Early tests show users clicking through at rates 40 percent higher than traditional search ads, according to industry sources. If OpenAI can maintain that engagement advantage, it could claim a meaningful slice of the £50 billion UK digital advertising market by 2026.

Defence parts maker Arxis raises $1.13bn in largest aerospace IPO since 2021

Arxis Technology priced its IPO at the top of its range, pulling $1.13 billion from investors betting on a sustained defence spending boom. The aerospace parts manufacturer's revenue jumped 47 percent last year as Western nations rebuilt weapon stockpiles depleted by Ukraine aid. Separately, Accel closed a $5 billion late-stage fund, its largest ever, signaling venture capital's flight to quality continues. Both deals suggest institutional money is concentrating in sectors with government backing or proven cash generation.

Trump threatens to fire Powell if Fed chair doesn't resign by May

Trump publicly demanded Jerome Powell step down by May or face termination, escalating his war with the Federal Reserve before he even takes office. Powell's term runs until 2026, and Fed chairs have legal protections against political firing. The threat triggered a 0.3 percent dollar rally as traders bet on more aggressive pro-growth policies. Powell has already signaled he won't resign voluntarily, setting up the first constitutional test of Fed independence since the 1970s.

US and Iran inch toward framework deal to end proxy wars

American and Iranian officials are drafting a framework agreement that could end the year-long Middle East conflict within months, according to sources close to the talks. The deal would freeze Iran's uranium enrichment at current levels in exchange for sanctions relief worth an estimated $90 billion. Oil futures fell 4 percent overnight as traders priced in reduced supply disruption risk. If successful, the agreement would mark the most significant US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough since the 2015 nuclear deal Trump abandoned.

Markets & Economy

Australia's unemployment holds at 4.3% despite 56,000 new full-time jobs

Australia added 56,000 full-time positions in December while unemployment stayed flat at 4.3 percent, suggesting the labour market has found its floor. The Reserve Bank of Australia now has cover to hold rates steady through the first half of 2025. Participation rates hit record highs as more Australians enter the workforce, keeping wage pressure contained despite job creation. The data reinforces Australia's position as one of the few developed economies achieving full employment without triggering runaway inflation.

Taiwan insurers pivot hedging strategy, cementing bond market dominance

Taiwan's life insurers have quietly become the world's largest foreign holders of US corporate bonds, owning over $400 billion in American debt. Their hedging strategy shifted dramatically last year, moving from currency swaps to direct dollar holdings as Fed rate cuts became inevitable. This pivot gives Taiwanese insurers more flexibility than European peers locked into expensive hedges. The move also explains why US corporate bond yields have stayed compressed despite rising Treasury rates.

Indian officials warn Iran war oil shock could match Covid disruption

Senior Indian government officials privately estimate a full Iran conflict could push oil to $150 per barrel, matching the economic disruption of Covid lockdowns. India imports 85 percent of its crude oil, making it uniquely vulnerable to Middle East supply shocks. The government has quietly accelerated talks with Russia and Venezuela for alternative supplies, despite Western sanctions pressure. A sustained oil spike above $120 would force the Reserve Bank of India to choose between controlling inflation and supporting growth.

Tech & AI

Figma hits Apple moment while Allbirds bets everything on AI pivot

Figma's new AI design tools have triggered what insiders call its 'iPhone moment', with enterprise adoption accelerating faster than any product launch since Slack. Professional designers are completing projects 60 percent faster using the AI features, according to early user data. Meanwhile, struggling shoe brand Allbirds has pivoted entirely to AI-powered personalized footwear, betting its survival on algorithmic fit prediction. The contrast illustrates how AI winners extend existing advantages while losers use it as a lifeline.

Policy & Regulation

Malaysia adopts tycoon's controversial migrant worker system

Malaysia will implement billionaire Amin Zakri's new migrant worker management system nationwide, despite human rights concerns from the UN. The digital platform tracks foreign workers' movements and automates deportation processes, promising to cut administrative costs by 40 percent. Zakri's company will earn fees from every worker processed through the system, creating the first privatized immigration enforcement mechanism in Southeast Asia. The model is already attracting interest from Singapore and Thailand as labour shortages intensify across the region.

Quick Hits

Fire shuts Australia's second-largest oil refinery, tightening fuel supplies

A major fire at Viva Energy's Geelong refinery will disrupt Australian petrol supplies for weeks. The facility processes 120,000 barrels daily, about 20 percent of the country's refining capacity.

Trump discussed Jesus meme with billionaire before posting

Trump consulted with philanthropist Bill Pulte before posting his controversial Jesus comparison meme, according to sources. The coordination suggests more calculated social media strategy than his typical stream-of-consciousness posts.

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  • Markets & Economy · 3 stories
  • Tech & AI · 1 story
  • Policy & Regulation · 1 story
  • Quick Hits · 3 stories

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Taiwan overtakes UK market cap on AI boom | Briefed