Philippines

Canada and the Philippines have committed to concluding a bilateral trade agreement in 2026, pairing it with expanded defence cooperation in a region where supply chain diversification away from China is driving new alignment. For UK exporters with Indo-Pacific ambitions, the Canada-Philippines axis is a reminder that CPTPP membership has real diplomatic freight beyond tariffs.

BSP Governor Eli Remolona broke with central bank tradition by naming a specific exchange rate level, saying 63.5 per dollar could be acceptable if depreciation remains orderly and non-inflationary. This represents 9-10% weaker than current high-50s levels and marks a shift from the BSP's usual stance of avoiding numerical guidance. Research shows peso pass-through to inflation has fallen to about 0.366 percentage points, roughly one-tenth of the prevailing inflation rate. The guidance comes as the BSP plans potential 50 basis points of rate cuts and aims to reduce bank reserve requirements from 9.5% to 5%.

The peso touched 61.30 per dollar, its weakest ever, as energy import costs and potential sovereign downgrades outweigh expectations of BSP tightening. Analysts forecast a slide to 62 despite calls for 1-2 rate hikes in 2026, as elevated oil prices from the Iran war squeeze the current account. Fitch's recent outlook revision from stable to negative adds selling pressure just as OPEC internal disputes create fresh uncertainty. The peso's energy import vulnerability makes it a pure play on geopolitical oil shocks, with limited policy tools to offset external pressure.

The Philippines posted its slowest growth since pandemic lockdowns at 2.8% in Q1, down from 5.4% a year earlier as oil shocks and regional competition bite. For President Marcos, who staked his administration on economic performance, this marks a 2.6 percentage point deceleration that positions the Philippines as a regional laggard. Policymakers now face the impossible: cool inflation while supporting the peso, with both objectives requiring opposite responses to an economy losing momentum.

S&P Global cut the Philippines' outlook to stable from positive, citing heightened risks to the country's balance of payments and fiscal position from the Iran war. The Philippines declared the world's first state of energy emergency as oil prices above $80 per barrel threaten to push Q2 GDP growth below 3%. The peso has weakened toward 60 per dollar despite central bank intervention, while inflation at 2.4% has room to rise within the 2-4% target band.

Philippine inflation surged to approximately 3.8% in March, the fastest pace in 20 months, as oil prices climbed 40% month-on-month and the peso hit record lows near 61 to the dollar. The central bank warned inflation could breach the 4% target ceiling, with every $10 oil increase widening the current account deficit by 0.3-0.4% of GDP. The World Bank estimates household incomes could fall 3.3% if oil stays 60% above 2025 levels, threatening the Philippines' energy-import dependent economy as Middle East supply disruptions persist.