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US 13G filings surge, Anthropic hits $900bn valuation

Disclosure deadlines bite institutional investors. AI valuations hit escape velocity.

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Institutions race to beat new 13G quarterly deadlines

Twenty-eight Schedule 13G filings hit the SEC yesterday, all from the same CIK, signaling the new quarterly disclosure rules are forcing institutional investors into housekeeping mode. The SEC's modernized rules cut deadlines from 45 days after year-end to 45 days after quarter-end, with passive investors now required to file within five business days instead of ten. This cluster likely represents a fund complex updating positions across multiple holdings rather than new activist plays. The real test comes in June when funds face their first full quarterly cycle under the accelerated regime.

Anthropic's $900bn valuation surpasses OpenAI on paper

Anthropic agreed terms on a $30 billion round at a $900 billion valuation, led by Dragoneer, Greenoaks, Sequoia, and Altimeter. This tops OpenAI's $852 billion March valuation and represents a 2.4x jump from Anthropic's February $380 billion round in just three months. The speed signals frontier AI labs have entered a capital arms race where compute access matters more than traditional valuation metrics. With Google already committed for up to $40 billion and Amazon for $25 billion in strategic investments, this financial round positions Anthropic to IPO from a position of strength rather than necessity.

China pledges billions in US farm purchases as summit delivers

Trade Representative Jamieson Greer expects China to commit billions in US agricultural purchases, with Beijing already one-third through its soybean commitments for this growing season. Soybean prices jumped 12-15% on the news, but industry reports suggest traders expect diversified buying rather than the concentrated soybean surge of previous deals. The agricultural promises come with Beijing seeking relief from the blanket 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Watch whether this translates to actual purchase orders or becomes another Phase One-style commitment that underdelivers when political winds shift.

SEC settles Adani case as enforcement pressure eases

The SEC agreed to settle its civil fraud case against Gautam Adani over alleged concealment of a bribery scheme tied to a $750 million 2021 bond offering. Adani had argued the case lacked US jurisdiction since the conduct occurred in India and the bonds were fully repaid with all interest in 2024. The settlement removes one layer of US legal risk for Asia's richest man but leaves the parallel Brooklyn criminal case unresolved. The timing coincides with Adani's reported lobbying of the Trump administration and pledged US investments, raising questions about whether enforcement decisions reflect legal merit or geopolitical considerations.

Yen slides toward 158 as intervention watch intensifies

The yen has weakened 1% over the past week to near 158 per dollar, putting traders back on intervention alert after Japanese authorities spent tens of billions defending the currency above 160 last year. Rabobank forecasts USD/JPY at 158 in three months but 152 in six months, assuming Fed easing narrows yield differentials. The carry trade logic remains intact with Japanese 10-year yields under 2% versus US Treasuries in the mid-single digits. Any intervention now would need to be massive to deter speculators who have seen this playbook twice before.

Policy & Regulation

CIA chief visits Havana as Cuba faces 22-hour blackouts

CIA Director John Ratcliffe met senior Cuban intelligence officials in Havana Thursday, with CBS reporting he delivered a message that the US was prepared to expand engagement if Havana made fundamental changes. The rare visit coincides with Cuba's energy minister warning of blackouts lasting 20-22 hours daily after the national grid failed. The State Department renewed an offer of $100 million in direct humanitarian aid, but only through the Catholic Church and independent groups bypassing the Cuban state. The conditional opening suggests Washington sees opportunity in Cuba's crisis but won't abandon leverage for symbolic gestures.

Markets & Economy

US-China trade truce continues despite ongoing Section 301 probe

Trade Representative Greer confirmed both sides are willing to maintain the current truce while continuing a Section 301 investigation opened in October that could justify new tariffs. China has completed about one-third of its soybean purchase commitments, but Greer warned China typically retaliates against US actions by targeting farmers. The parallel tracks reveal the administration's strategy: keep dialogue alive while preserving legal grounds for pressure. The Supreme Court case challenging Trump's reciprocal tariffs makes Section 301 authority more critical if existing trade tools face judicial limits.

Business & Strategy

FT Innovative Lawyers Awards spotlight Asia-Pacific restructuring boom

The Financial Times' 2026 Asia-Pacific legal awards highlight how Chinese property distress is driving innovation in cross-border restructuring. Sidley Austin earned recognition for Sino-Ocean Group's $6 billion offshore debt restructuring, while Latham advised on MINISO's $550 million equity-linked securities offering using complex delta placements and call spreads. These deals showcase how legal teams are navigating US-China tensions in capital markets through increasingly sophisticated structures. The awards ceremony in Hong Kong next week will reveal which firms top the innovation rankings as Asia-Pacific legal spending concentrates on fewer, higher-stakes mandates.

Quick Hits

Trump's Beijing CEO delegation produces more ceremony than deals

Trump brought top US executives to Beijing for his meeting with Xi Jinping but few major commercial agreements emerged despite the high-profile optics.

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