International Trade

Every bilateral e-gates deal Britain signs is really a small admission that the EU relationship isn't giving UK travellers frictionless movement anymore, so London is patching it country by country. The UK and Switzerland have agreed a deal scrapping mobile roaming charges and granting British travellers access to Swiss e-gates, following a similar arrangement struck with the EU earlier this year. It's a genuinely useful deal for business travellers and a low-cost diplomatic win for both governments. The pattern to watch is whether this becomes the template for further UK deals with Norway, Iceland, or Gulf states, each one chipping away at the friction Brexit created without touching the politically toxic subject of rejoining anything.

Canada and the Philippines have committed to concluding a bilateral trade agreement in 2026, pairing it with expanded defence cooperation in a region where supply chain diversification away from China is driving new alignment. For UK exporters with Indo-Pacific ambitions, the Canada-Philippines axis is a reminder that CPTPP membership has real diplomatic freight beyond tariffs.

New Zealand's total goods exports reached NZ$8.9 billion in May 2026, an 18% year-on-year increase and the second consecutive monthly record, with meat the single largest driver at NZ$1.5 billion, up 43%. The US is the engine: frozen beef exports to the US surged 94% to NZ$385 million, accounting for more than 70% of all NZ meat exported there, as Stats NZ data confirms. The USDA expects US cattle inventories to trough around 2025 and take until 2033 to fully rebuild, which means this is a structural demand window measured in years rather than quarters. Rabobank's June 2026 agribusiness outlook describes 'record export values' for NZ beef with 'firm feet for pricing'. The complication is the import side: petroleum costs drove a 26% jump in NZ imports to NZ$8.1 billion in the same month, with oil accounting for nearly half the increase. UK agribusiness investors and food retailers sourcing New Zealand protein should model this as durable, but freight costs and Hormuz-linked oil prices compress the margin picture for processors.

A Florida trading company is in advanced talks to send Cuba a very large US fuel cargo, potentially the biggest such shipment since the Eisenhower-era embargo began in 1960. The deal comes as Cuba faces acute fuel shortages driving rolling blackouts across the island of 11 million people. Recent Russian donations of 100,000 tons of oil proved insufficient to stabilise supply, forcing Cuba to consider emergency options from non-traditional counterparties. The shipment, still in negotiation, would test decades of sanctions restrictions while highlighting how energy crises can reshape geopolitical relationships.

The Trade Representative has targeted major partners including China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the UK with additional duties of at least 10 percent following a Section 301 investigation into forced labor enforcement failures. 54 economies were found to lack effective forced labor import prohibitions, while six others including Canada and Mexico have inadequate enforcement. The move comes after the Supreme Court struck down previous emergency tariffs in February, forcing the administration to use more durable Section 301 authority. Certain products including energy, rare earths, and pharmaceuticals are exempted for supply security reasons.

The European Commission hit Temu with a €200 million fine for failing to assess risks from illegal baby toys and defective chargers sold on its platform. Mystery shopping found a 'very high percentage' of chargers failed basic safety tests while baby toys contained illegal chemical levels and suffocation hazards. The Digital Services Act breach marks only the second DSA fine after X's €120 million penalty, but expands enforcement from content moderation into hard product safety. Temu must submit an action plan by August 28th or face periodic penalty payments.

Western automakers are abandoning the dream of outbuilding Chinese EV leaders alone, instead partnering with local upstarts for technology and platforms. Stellantis's tie-up with Leapmotor exemplifies the shift, while Volkswagen plans 40 new China models over three years including two co-developed with XPeng launching in 2026. Chinese EV sales surged from 900,000 units in 2020 to 5.1 million, capturing 24% of new car sales through aggressive pricing and software integration that Western brands struggled to match. The partnerships signal that Chinese firms have moved from local challengers to core technology suppliers in the global auto industry.

Brussels fast-tracked ratification of its new trade deal with the US after Trump threatened sharply higher tariffs beyond his 15% baseline. The agreement locks in a $750 billion energy purchase commitment and $600 billion in EU investment over Trump's term. European Parliament members who wanted to slow-walk approval over sovereignty concerns were overruled to avoid immediate tariff retaliation. The deal still contains legally non-binding elements that could unravel if political winds shift, but Trump's brinkmanship worked. EU exporters in autos, pharma, and semiconductors now face predictable 15% duties rather than open-ended escalation.

Trade Representative Jamieson Greer expects China to commit billions in US agricultural purchases, with Beijing already one-third through its soybean commitments for this growing season. Soybean prices jumped 12-15% on the news, but industry reports suggest traders expect diversified buying rather than the concentrated soybean surge of previous deals. The agricultural promises come with Beijing seeking relief from the blanket 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Watch whether this translates to actual purchase orders or becomes another Phase One-style commitment that underdelivers when political winds shift.

Trade Representative Greer confirmed both sides are willing to maintain the current truce while continuing a Section 301 investigation opened in October that could justify new tariffs. China has completed about one-third of its soybean purchase commitments, but Greer warned China typically retaliates against US actions by targeting farmers. The parallel tracks reveal the administration's strategy: keep dialogue alive while preserving legal grounds for pressure. The Supreme Court case challenging Trump's reciprocal tariffs makes Section 301 authority more critical if existing trade tools face judicial limits.

Trump brought top US executives to Beijing for his meeting with Xi Jinping but few major commercial agreements emerged despite the high-profile optics.

Geopolitical thaw meets AI euphoria as markets price lower tail risk. South Korea's KOSPI hit records with a 6.5% jump, Samsung crossed $1 trillion in market cap, and China's STAR Market surged 5.5% on reopening after holiday closures. Trump's arrival in Beijing with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang signals potential cooperation on AI development despite broader trade tensions. Oil fell 1% after Trump paused Persian Gulf escort operations to make room for Iran talks, removing near-term energy price pressure from the tech rally equation.

Critical material supply chains likely on the negotiating table alongside trade and technology.

Trump's tariff strategy hit another judicial wall yesterday. A federal trade court ruled his 10 percent global tariffs illegal under Section 122 of the Trade Act, finding no balance-of-payments deficit exists. This follows February's Supreme Court rejection of his broader tariff powers under emergency legislation. The administration will appeal, but the pattern is clear: courts are systematically dismantling Trump's trade arsenal piece by piece. For businesses facing import costs, the legal uncertainty may prove more damaging than the tariffs themselves.

Donald Trump walked back his June 1 threat to impose 50 percent tariffs on EU goods, extending the deadline to July 9 after Ursula von der Leyen requested serious negotiations. The pattern is familiar: announce steep tariffs, spook markets, then delay after diplomatic outreach. EU goods currently face 10 percent duties, rising to 20 percent in early July without a deal. With 44 days remaining and a $236 billion trade deficit as leverage, Trump has created a binary outcome that could either produce genuine concessions or trigger the largest transatlantic trade war in decades.

The Baltic Dry Index jumped 3.2% to 2,560 points, its highest since December 2023, driven by capesize vessels earning $37,158 daily. The 22% weekly surge in capesize rates reflects fleet tightening from special surveys and longer voyage times, while Red Sea disruptions add 4% to global demand. Forward contracts now price Q2 capesize rates at $32,500 daily, up 67% from July levels, suggesting the rally has legs beyond short-term supply constraints.

LME-certified warehouses in Hong Kong accepted over 8,000 tons of metals since April with CEO Matthew Chamberlain seeing stocks potentially reach hundreds of thousands of tons. A 10,000 square-foot facility at Runfa Wharf hit full capacity within a week and plans 30,000 square feet of expansion. Middle East tensions are driving manufacturers to seek stable supplies, positioning Hong Kong as a gateway to China's metals market despite higher costs than regional competitors.

Treasury Wine Estates jumped the most in 12 years after reporting strong China sales recovery, with mainland revenue up 89 percent year-on-year. The Penfolds owner benefited from Beijing's quiet relaxation of Australian wine tariffs as diplomatic relations thaw. Premium wine exports to China now exceed pre-trade war levels, suggesting consumers have forgiven the political disruption. The stock surge validates investors who bought during the tariff trough, with shares still trading 40 percent below 2019 peaks.

US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told the Atlantic Council that CEOs with decades-long China operations are increasingly considering pullouts due to Xi Jinping's authoritarian shift and tougher business climate. She's urging companies to relocate to US-aligned partners via the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, emphasizing shared tech standards and rule of law over China's influence in Africa and the Global South. Raimondo envisions the US producing 1 million more engineers annually and 150,000 new manufacturing jobs while building hundreds of chip startups to reduce Taiwan dependence.