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Currency Markets
Everything Briefed has filed against Currency Markets, most recent first.
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BNY Mellon's new yen gauge is a curry, not a burgerBNY Mellon strategist Geoff Yu has built a Katsu Curry Index to track yen weakness, arguing a Japanese pork-and-rice staple reflects domestic purchasing power better than The Economist's Big Mac, a…The yen intervention rally is already half goneJapan and the US ran their first joint yen-buying operation since 1998 last week, hauling the currency from a 40-year low near 164 per dollar to about 155.20. It's now back to roughly 158.4, having…The Aussie dollar is closing in on a 35-year high against the yenAUD/JPY has recovered to around 111.52 after Tokyo's currency intervention briefly knocked it down more than 4% toward 109, and strategist Sean Callow at InTouch Capital Markets sees resistance at …The Sell America trade is back, and this time it has receiptsDollar bears got quiet after the spring tariff panic faded, but the underlying complaint never actually went away: foreign holders of US assets are recalculating what Washington's policy volatility…Japan wants growth to do what intervention couldn'tBetting on GDP growth to fix the yen is a longer, riskier play than currency intervention, and Tokyo knows it. The argument coming out of Japan's leadership is that sustained economic growth, not c…Tokyo and Washington confirm the intervention everyone already priced inCentral banks rarely admit to currency intervention while it's happening, so Japan and the US confirming a joint operation to prop up the yen is the unusual part, not the intervention itself. The y…The peso's record low is an oil story wearing a currency maskThe Philippine peso's fresh record low tracks almost exactly with crude's climb this month, because the Philippines imports nearly all its oil and pays for it in dollars. Every dollar oil rises pus…Yen crashes through 163, and the Bank of Japan is running out of excusesA four-decade low against the dollar means the yen has now erased more value than at any point since 1986, and Tokyo's verbal intervention playbook is visibly failing to hold the line. The move pas…The rupee's rebound story just got run over by an oil price it can't hedgeIndia imports roughly 85% of its crude, so every dollar Brent adds to the barrel price is a direct hit to the current account that no amount of portfolio inflow enthusiasm can offset. Traders had b…Brussels is watching the yuan slide against the euro, and exporters are nervousA weaker yuan against the euro makes Chinese goods cheaper for European buyers at the exact moment the EU is trying to close tariff loopholes on everything from EVs to steel, and that timing is not…Indonesia's rupiah has a rate hike to lean on, the Aussie doesn'tBank Indonesia's rate stance and stronger fiscal numbers are giving the rupiah a floor that most emerging market currencies lack right now, with analysts pointing to improved current account discip…The yen at a four-decade low is a carry trade with a known endingThe yen has hit its weakest level against the dollar in roughly forty years, a direct consequence of the Bank of Japan's continued hesitation to raise rates meaningfully despite inflation running a…New Zealand dollar faces a difficult Q3Analysts are flagging that the New Zealand dollar enters Q3 with growth headwinds from weak Chinese demand and a domestic economy running below potential. For UK exporters with NZD receivables, the…Starmer out: sterling takes the hit the gilt market refused toKeir Starmer has resigned as Prime Minister, ending a tenure that never found its footing between a mandate it had and a public it lost. The pound fell on the news while gilts held, which tells you…Goldman calls sterling the most overvalued G10 currency. The BoE has more cuts coming than the market thinks.The pound's post-Brexit recovery has, according to Goldman Sachs, now overshot the fundamentals that justified it. Goldman's GSDEER model labels sterling the most structurally overvalued G10 curren…US exceptionalism is back in the dollar trade, and the BoE is watching today's inflation print carefullySpeculative long-dollar positioning has hit its most bullish level since February 2025, driven by a US economy that keeps refusing to slow on schedule: firm retail control-group sales, sticky core …Green economy revenues are growing at twice the rate of conventional ones, and oil is heading toward a glutThe global green economy now exceeds $5 trillion in annual value and is tracking toward $7 trillion by 2030, with green revenues growing at roughly twice the pace of conventional business lines and…Indonesian rupiah nears 18,000 as central bank intervenesBank Indonesia deployed "smart intervention" after the currency hit record lows of 17,733 per dollar amid regional tensions.Japan warns it can act on currency volatilityFinance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated Japan's readiness to intervene if there's excessive FX volatility or speculative moves, as USD/JPY trades near intervention-sensitive levels. Her commen…Philippine central bank signals peso at 63.5 per dollar 'might be okay'BSP Governor Eli Remolona broke with central bank tradition by naming a specific exchange rate level, saying 63.5 per dollar could be acceptable if depreciation remains orderly and non-inflationary…RBC BlueBay adds yen longs as USD/JPY approaches intervention zoneRBC BlueBay increased its yen positions as USD/JPY drifted back toward 160, viewing this level as "increasingly attractive" given rising intervention risk and June BoJ hike expectations. The asset …India scrambles to stem oil shock damageOil at $115+ per barrel is hammering India's currency and equity markets as foreign investors pull billions from Indian assets. The rupee hit a record low of ₹93.41 per dollar while the Nifty 50 dr…Morgan Stanley Japan CEO wants yen at 140Alberto Tamura told Bloomberg he's 'hoping that the yen strengthens to around 140' per dollar, but only if the Bank of Japan acts. Morgan Stanley's FX research shows USD/JPY trading above fair valu…Yen slides toward 158 as intervention watch intensifiesThe yen has weakened 1% over the past week to near 158 per dollar, putting traders back on intervention alert after Japanese authorities spent tens of billions defending the currency above 160 last…Indonesia's rupiah hits record lows as oil shocks meet political riskThe rupiah's slide to 17,443 per dollar tells the story of an oil-dependent economy caught between geopolitical shocks and domestic governance worries. Bank Indonesia's "smart interventions" using …Goldman calls yuan 25% cheap, predicts rallyGoldman Sachs revised its yuan forecasts higher across all timeframes, calling the currency one of its highest conviction trades for 2026. The bank's GSDEER model shows the yuan trading 30 percent …Japan spends $35bn defending yen, market fights backJapanese authorities burned through over $35 billion in forex intervention starting April 30, triggering a 500-pip yen rally that reversed within days. The USD/JPY pair has since formed a triple bo…Philippine peso hits record low despite rate hike betsThe peso touched 61.30 per dollar, its weakest ever, as energy import costs and potential sovereign downgrades outweigh expectations of BSP tightening. Analysts forecast a slide to 62 despite calls…Indonesia caps dollar purchases as rupiah nears record lowsBank Indonesia slashed foreign currency purchase limits to $50,000 per month from $100,000 as the rupiah traded near 17,000 per dollar, its weakest level on record. The emergency measures follow ca…Yen rallies 545 pips on intervention threats that may not existUSD/JPY crashed from 159.25 to around 154 after Japanese officials issued their strongest warnings yet, with FX chief Mimura calling it a "final warning." The problem: no one can confirm actual int…Collapsing volatility supercharges carry trade returnsCurrency volatility hit multi-year lows this week, turning carry trades into the year's most reliable money printer as geopolitical risks fade and central bank policy paths crystallize. Japanese ye…Korean won hits longest rally since 2013 as risks fadeThe Korean won strengthened 0.8% to 1,425.25 per dollar, marking its seventh straight daily gain—the longest streak since January 2013. The KOSPI surged 6.87% to close at 5,872 as the Iran ceasefir…