Notes
The questions that keep coming back.
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Are UK interest rates going down in 2026?Bank Rate is 3.75%. The Bank of England held in July 2026 by 6–3, with all three dissenters preferring a rise to 4%. Further cuts are possible, but they are no longer the default direction.Is the UK heading for a recession in 2026?The UK is not currently in recession. GDP grew 0.4% in July and 0.4% in the three months to July 2026. The main downside risks are a softer labour market, weak industrial activity and an inflationary energy shock.UK consumer confidence in 2026: what the data showsGfK consumer confidence rose to -14 in August 2026, its highest reading for two years, from -17 in July and -25 in April. Sentiment is improving, but remains below zero.UK consumer spending in 2026: what the data showsRetail sales volumes rose 1.1% in the three months to July 2026 and 3.0% from a year earlier, despite a 0.5% monthly fall in July. The consumer is recovering unevenly, not collapsing or booming.What caused the cost of living crisis in the UK?Three overlapping shocks: energy prices, post-pandemic supply chains, and a wage-price spiral in services. How each one hit, and when costs ease.What is the UK minimum wage?It is £12.82 an hour from April 2026 for workers aged 21 and over. The London rate, what it adds up to per year, and what employers must know.Are UK mortgage rates going down in 2026?Not consistently. Bank Rate is 3.75%, but quoted two-year fixes rose after wholesale rates increased: the Bank of England put the average 75% LTV two-year fix at 4.92% in July 2026. The effective rate on newly drawn mortgages was 4.45% in July.What is the Bank of England base rate?The Bank of England base rate is currently 3.75 percent, set by the Monetary Policy Committee. It is the rate at which the Bank lends to commercial banks overnight, and it flows through to savings rates, mortgage rates, and the cost of business borrowing across the economy.Bank of England MPC meeting dates 2026The Monetary Policy Committee meets eight times a year to set the base rate. Here are the scheduled decision dates for 2026, with the next announcement due on 30 July alongside a Monetary Policy Report.Is the UK economy growing?Yes. UK GDP grew 0.4% in July 2026 and 0.4% in the three months to July. Services drove the rolling-quarter growth, while production and construction both fell 0.5%.What is stagflation?Stagflation is the combination of stagnant economic growth, high inflation, and rising unemployment occurring at the same time. It is unusual because the conditions that drive inflation typically suppress unemployment, and vice versa.What is quantitative easing?Quantitative easing is a form of monetary policy in which a central bank creates new money to buy financial assets, typically government bonds, to lower borrowing costs and stimulate economic activity when conventional interest rate cuts are no longer sufficient.