India

Modi's political capital rides on a key state election as voter registration disputes threaten BJP control.

Swedish private equity giant EQT raised $15.6 billion for its Asia fund, the largest regional PE vehicle on record. The fund targets mid-market buyouts across Southeast Asia and India, betting on consumption growth as Chinese economic expansion slows. EQT's timing looks smart: Asian PE valuations sit 30% below US equivalents while GDP growth rates run twice as high. The question is whether Western capital can navigate regulatory complexity in markets where government relationships matter more than spreadsheet models.

Senior Indian government officials privately estimate a full Iran conflict could push oil to $150 per barrel, matching the economic disruption of Covid lockdowns. India imports 85 percent of its crude oil, making it uniquely vulnerable to Middle East supply shocks. The government has quietly accelerated talks with Russia and Venezuela for alternative supplies, despite Western sanctions pressure. A sustained oil spike above $120 would force the Reserve Bank of India to choose between controlling inflation and supporting growth.

Assembly elections in four Indian states are testing PM Modi's foreign policy credentials as the rupee fell 4% following the February US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, compounding a 5% decline from Trump's 2025 tariff war. Modi's traditional brand as a foreign policy strategist who elevated India globally faces scrutiny after New Delhi was sidelined in diplomatic efforts, with Pakistan taking a leading role. The PM announced seven inter-ministerial groups to assess energy and supply chain implications amid panic buying at fuel pumps.

Iran established a de facto shipping corridor through territorial waters near Larak Island, with one tanker operator reportedly paying $2 million for IRGC transit approval. Nine ships have used the route requiring visual checks, whilst governments including India, China, and Malaysia negotiate directly with Tehran.

India's economy faces its biggest external shock in years as the Iran conflict exposes dangerous energy dependencies, with 85% of crude imports and over half from the Middle East now at risk. Goldman Sachs and ANZ cut growth forecasts to 6.5% from 7% as Brent crude hit $114.35, while Indian stocks fell 10% since the war began. Every $10 oil increase widens India's current account deficit by 0.4% of GDP, potentially pushing it above 3% if prices sustain $150+ levels, threatening the Goldilocks growth phase that made India the world's fastest-growing major economy.

Indian Potash Limited issued a tender for 2.5 million tonnes of urea as Middle East conflict disrupts supplies ahead of monsoon planting season. At least 21 vessels carrying 919,000 tonnes of urea are stranded beyond the Strait of Hormuz, while domestic plants have shut due to LNG shortages from Qatar. India imports heavily from Gulf nations for rice, corn and cotton farming, making this a potential food security crisis if the conflict drags on.