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Monetary Policy

Monetary policy is the framework through which central banks attempt to balance inflation, growth, and financial stability. Briefed covers the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decisions, the intellectual frameworks that shape them, and the moments when data forces a shift in the forward guidance that markets have been pricing. The post-2022 tightening cycle has tested the limits of what monetary policy can achieve.

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Latest edition

15 May 2026

Monetary policy is the machinery that sets the price of money. When a central bank moves its policy rate, or buys and sells government bonds, it is trying to steer inflation and demand, and the effects reach almost every part of the economy. For a UK business the chain is direct: the Bank of England's decisions reprice corporate borrowing, mortgage costs, and ultimately the spending power of customers.

The era of ultra-low rates and large-scale asset purchases has given way to a harder regime of tighter policy and quantitative tightening, and the world's central banks are no longer moving in step. That divergence matters. The Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan are each balancing their own inflation and growth picture, and the gaps between them move currencies and capital. Watch this subject alongside interest rates, inflation, and the capital markets that price the decisions in real time.

Briefed reads policy through its consequences rather than its theatre: what a decision does to borrowing costs, to household budgets, and to the consumer stress that shows up before the official data does. The coverage below follows the meetings and the data; the standing view is that monetary policy is the single most important macro input for UK operators and investors to track.

Coverage trail

2133 of 33

15 May 2026Top Stories

Yen slides toward 158 as intervention watch intensifies

The yen has weakened 1% over the past week to near 158 per dollar, putting traders back on intervention alert after Japanese authorities spent tens of billions defending the currency above 160 last year. Rabobank forecasts USD/JPY at 158 in three months but 152 in six months, assuming Fed easing narrows yield differentials. The carry trade logic remains intact with Japanese 10-year yields under 2% versus US Treasuries in the mid-single digits. Any intervention now would need to be massive to deter speculators who have seen this playbook twice before.

From US 13G filings surge, Anthropic hits $900bn valuation

11 May 2026Top Stories

Japan spends $35bn defending yen, market fights back

Japanese authorities burned through over $35 billion in forex intervention starting April 30, triggering a 500-pip yen rally that reversed within days. The USD/JPY pair has since formed a triple bottom pattern, with traders betting structural weakness will outlast official buying power. IMF rules limit Japan to three interventions in six months, constraining Tokyo's options as policy divergence with the Fed continues driving yen selling. Each intervention grows more expensive and less effective, suggesting authorities are fighting a battle they cannot win without BOJ rate hikes.

From Trump calls Iran response 'totally unacceptable'

7 May 2026Top Stories

Philippine growth collapses to 2.8% as Marcos faces economic reality

The Philippines posted its slowest growth since pandemic lockdowns at 2.8% in Q1, down from 5.4% a year earlier as oil shocks and regional competition bite. For President Marcos, who staked his administration on economic performance, this marks a 2.6 percentage point deceleration that positions the Philippines as a regional laggard. Policymakers now face the impossible: cool inflation while supporting the peso, with both objectives requiring opposite responses to an economy losing momentum.

From AirAsia calls jet fuel crisis worse than Covid

7 May 2026Policy & Regulation

OECD warns New Zealand's central bank remit changes risk policy errors

Frequent adjustments to the RBNZ's mandate against ongoing institutional changes increase risks of costly monetary policy mistakes, the OECD warns. Phase 2 of the Reserve Bank Act Review examines broader financial stability roles while inflation persists above target and forecast errors compound policy missteps. With older statistics hampering real-time decisions and political pressure mounting, New Zealand risks undermining the credibility that took decades to build.

From AirAsia calls jet fuel crisis worse than Covid

6 May 2026Top Stories

Indonesia caps dollar purchases as rupiah nears record lows

Bank Indonesia slashed foreign currency purchase limits to $50,000 per month from $100,000 as the rupiah traded near 17,000 per dollar, its weakest level on record. The emergency measures follow capital flight triggered by Middle East war fears, with supporting documents now required for all FX transfers above $50,000. Natural resource exporters must place 100% of export proceeds in state banks for 12 months under separate rules introduced in January. Governor Perry Warjiyo kept rates steady at 4.75% but signalled interventions will escalate if the conflict persists, prioritising foreign reserves over monetary easing as inflation threatens Southeast Asia's largest economy.

From Iran reopens Hormuz as oil plunges 10%

1 May 2026Top Stories

Yen rallies 545 pips on intervention threats that may not exist

USD/JPY crashed from 159.25 to around 154 after Japanese officials issued their strongest warnings yet, with FX chief Mimura calling it a "final warning." The problem: no one can confirm actual intervention occurred. Bank of America noted no BoJ indications and trading volumes stayed unusually low for such a sharp move. Tokyo has perfected the art of currency management through threats alone, but this rally risks fading fast without real money backing it. The Fed meets Thursday, and if Powell sounds dovish, dollar weakness could do Japan's work for them.

From Singapore's PM to chair AI council as yen tanks 545 pips

30 April 2026Top Stories

Powell survives criminal probe in final Fed meeting

The US Attorney closed the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell last Friday, three days before his likely final meeting as Fed Chair. Powell confirmed he will stay on the Board of Governors until the probe is "fully resolved," giving Kevin Warsh a clean handover around May 15th. The Fed held rates at 3.75% as CPI hit a two-year high of 3.3%, driven by Iran conflict energy costs. With GDP revised down to 0.5% in Q4, Powell faces classic stagflation dynamics on his way out. Markets have priced out any 2026 rate cuts.

From Big Tech blows $650bn on AI while Fed stays put

27 April 2026Markets & Economy

Fed, Bank of Canada hold rates as war clouds policy

Central banks paused after late-2025 easing cycles, with the Fed holding at 3.5-3.75 percent despite two FOMC members dissenting for cuts. The Bank of Canada kept rates at 2.25 percent, flagging 'bidirectional uncertainty' from energy volatility and US tariff threats. Markets had priced 96-97 percent odds of holds across Fed, BoC, and Bank of Japan decisions this week. The pause reflects elevated inflation risks from Middle East war driving energy prices higher, with Canadian CPI already ticking up to 2.4 percent in December from prior 2.2 percent readings.

From Trump orders Navy blockade as Iran talks collapse

27 April 2026Markets & Economy

China tackles liquidity glut with drainage tools

The People's Bank of China is addressing excess liquidity pushing money market rates to multi-year lows, with overnight repo near 1.2 percent and one-month certificate yields at January 2023 levels. Despite recent 9.5 billion yuan injections via seven-day reverse repos, the PBOC maintains tools to drain funds including medium-term lending facility reductions and central bank bill issuances. China faces excess liquidity estimated at 50 percent above cross-country benchmarks, leading to credit misallocation at provincial level. The central bank cut foreign exchange risk reserve ratios from 20 percent to zero, lowering hedging costs as the yuan strengthens on trade surplus settlements and easing US-China tensions.

From Trump orders Navy blockade as Iran talks collapse

17 April 2026Top Stories

Goldman bets everything on rate cuts that aren't coming

Goldman Sachs just staked its market outlook on central bank relief that European policymakers are actively resisting. The bank's strategists argue equity recovery hinges on 'rates relief', while ECB board member Muller warns against rushing into cuts despite inflation pressures. This disconnect matters more than usual: equity valuations now assume dovish pivots that monetary authorities refuse to signal, setting up either a policy surprise or a repricing shock. Goldman's call works only if central banks blink first.

From Goldman wants rate relief. Europe says no

17 April 2026Markets & Economy

ECB's Muller warns against market rate fantasies

ECB board member Joachim Muller just told markets to stop pricing aggressive rate cuts into 2025. His call for 'vigilance without rushing' translates to: inflation is stickier than bond traders assume, and the central bank won't rescue equity valuations with premature easing. German yields jumped on the comments, but the real impact hits growth stocks trading on rate-cut assumptions. Muller's timing is deliberate: European policymakers want to establish credibility before Trump's tariff policies complicate their inflation calculus.

From Goldman wants rate relief. Europe says no

13 April 2026Markets & Economy

Bank of Japan sticks to wait-and-see amid trade war uncertainty

The Bank of Japan's default mode when facing uncertainty is simple: hold. A former BOJ executive director confirms what markets suspected — the central bank's "wait-and-see" approach makes December's rate decision too close to call, even with underlying inflation at 2% and the economy near full employment. The latest 7-2 vote to hold at 0.5% reflects concerns about U.S. trade policy impacts on Japan's manufacturing, while board members like Junko Koeda push for normalisation given low real rates. With fiscal 2026 wage negotiations starting pre-March, the BOJ's next move hinges on whether services inflation proves sustainable.

From Orbán's 16-year run ends as Hungary delivers 'regime change'

9 April 2026Markets & Economy

RBNZ warns of 'decisive' action as inflation outlook spikes

New Zealand's central bank held rates at 2.25% but Governor Anna Breman warned of "decisive and timely" increases if core inflation accelerates, with the bank now forecasting annual inflation spiking to 4.2% in June—well above the 3% target ceiling. The Middle East conflict has "materially altered" the outlook, disrupting oil, gas and petrochemical supplies critical to transport and agriculture. The RBNZ cut rates 325 basis points since August 2024 but supply chain disruptions may force a hawkish pivot.

From Vance leads Iran talks as oil plunges, won rallies

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